21. Sep 2026
Description
(AWP Alliance News) - European equities are called to start the week higher, while Brent slid despite concerns that clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could escalate.
Here is what you need to know before the European market open on Monday:
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MARKETS
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CAC 40: called up 37.9 points, 0.5%, at 8,102.92
DAX 40: called up 109.4 points, 0.4%, at 25,413.46
FTSE 100: called up 27.5 points, 0.3%, at 10,686.63
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Hang Seng: up 0.6% at 24,889.76
Nikkei 225: up 1.7% at 65,018.95
S&P/ASX 200: down 0.1% at 8,722.00
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DJIA: closed down 95.40 points, 0.2%, at 51,682.64
S&P 500: closed up 12.74 points, 0.2%, at 7,650.50
Nasdaq Composite: closed up 104.25 points, 0.4%, at 26,522.55
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US 10-year Treasury yield: 5.00% (5.01%)
US 30-year Treasury yield: 5.33% (5.34%)
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EUR: higher at USD1.1474 (USD1.1466)
GBP: higher at USD1.3375 (USD1.3372)
USD: lower at JPY157.03 (JPY157.07)
gold: higher at USD4,361.63 per ounce (USD4,355.67)
oil (Brent): lower at USD101.62 a barrel (USD104.37)
(changes since previous London equities close)
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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08:30 EDT US Chicago Fed national activity index
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TOP ECONOMIC NEWS
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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted a "very successful" meeting on trade and artificial intelligence with Chinese officials Sunday, adding that both sides discussed greater communication on artificial intelligence threats. "We just had a very successful engagement with the Chinese," Bessent told reporters after the all-day meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng. The discussions, which also included top US trade official Jamieson Greer, lasted around eight hours and set the stage for possible agreements on trade, AI and other issues before a summit of the countries' top leaders. US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are due to meet Thursday in Washington. Bessent said the US proposed a notification mechanism between the two countries for incidents like security threats.
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The US warned that hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis could "escalate rapidly" after the Houthis' latest attack on Riyadh. President Trump cut short a weekend at Camp David, a secluded presidential complex in rural Maryland, to return unexpectedly to the White House on Saturday. The White House gave no explanation for the early return, which comes as a new threshold was crossed in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, who control a large part of Yemen and are fighting government forces backed by a coalition led by Riyadh. "This military conflict has the potential to escalate rapidly," the US State Department warned.
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Yemen's Houthis issued a Telegram statement on Saturday claiming strikes on "sensitive sites" in Riyadh and Saudi Arabian Oil facilities in the kingdom's port city of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia has responded with scores of airstrikes on Houthi-held areas but failed to stop the advance. Saudi authorities had earlier issued an overnight air raid alert. The US, according to US news platform Axios, last week refused a Saudi request to strike the Houthis. Washington approved a USD24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom on Thursday to help Riyadh "deter current and future threats", the US State Department said.
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The US has lifted sanctions on Eritrea imposed in 2021 over the deadly conflict in neighbouring Ethiopia, as Washington seeks to "advance US regional interests" in a country that borders the strategic Red Sea. Eritrean troops were accused of committing atrocities during the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region. The US sanctions had been renewed each year under a presidential declaration of a "national emergency," including last year by Trump. Eritrea's Horn of Africa location could be key amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, as the Red Sea has become a key oil shipping route with the Strait of Hormuz blocked.
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Denmark hailed a "binding" deal announced by President Trump to give Washington "permanent control" over Greenland's security and bar Russian and Chinese bases from the Arctic territory. Denmark and Greenland - an autonomous Danish territory - both hailed the deal and said they would sign it on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week. In a statement, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the deal as "an agreement which at the same time recognises the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom and the Greenlandic people's right to self-determination". On his Truth Social network, Trump said: "I am pleased to announce that the US of America has entered into an agreement with The Kingdom of Denmark, and Greenland, that gives the US permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland. From now on, no US adversary can ever have a base in Greenland, have a military presence in Greenland, or make sensitive investments in Greenland, without our express written approval."
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President Trump signed a bill on Friday authorising new sanctions designed to pressure Russia over its war in Ukraine, after Congress gave its approval following months of delay. The legislation takes aim at Russia's energy and defence sectors, alongside President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials. It also targets Moscow's so-called shadow fleet of tankers used to evade Western sanctions, and allows Trump the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil and gas. That could potentially cover China and India, and furthers efforts to cut off revenue financing Moscow's war. The US also approved a potential USD2.68 billion sale of air defence equipment to Ukraine on Friday.
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US military forces came close to boarding a Chinese vessel in the Middle East earlier this year based on a flawed intelligence report prepared with the help of artificial intelligence, CNN said Friday. US intelligence indicated the ship was carrying nuclear weapons-related components, leading American forces to prepare to intercept it, the broadcaster reported, citing four anonymous sources familiar with the incident. But the operation was called off after officials determined that an AI chatbot used by an analyst had misidentified the material the ship was carrying. CNN quoted one source as saying the intelligence report was "entirely false" but "almost started a war." It did not specify what the vessel was actually carrying or where it was bound.
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President Trump lashed out at critics of artificial intelligence and data centres, saying he would not allow the "destruction" of the industry. Trump added that he was creating an "AI Force" that would be tasked with "looking for BAD" actors, and would soon announce an AI coordinator or "Czar."
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A US federal appeals court broadly upheld a lower court ruling restricting a Trump administration policy of deporting undocumented migrants to countries that are not their own. The three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the First Circuit said people facing "third-country" deportations must be given effective notice ahead of time about where they are being sent to allow them to raise concerns about potential persecution. The Trump administration is expected to appeal the case to the conservative-dominated Supreme Court.
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An association representing hundreds of journalists who cover the White House demanded Saturday the restoration of access for banned colleagues, calling the removal unconstitutional. On Saturday, US media outlets CNN and MS NOW, formerly MSNBC, said they were denied access to the White House grounds, a day after Trump announced a ban against them for reporting what he calls "fake news." There was no immediate word from Politico, which Trump also included in his ban.
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China's central bank kept its key lending rates unchanged in September. The People's Bank of China left its one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, in line with the FXStreet-cited consensus. This was unchanged from August. The central bank last revised rates in May 2025, when it trimmed the one-year and five-year LPR's by 10 basis points from 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.
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UK house prices increased in September, according to a report from Rightmove, the first time prices have risen since May. The average asking price for a newly listed property increased 0.7% month-on-month in September, rising to GBP367,440. Prices had fallen 2.0% in August to GBP356,999. The online property platform said the price increase indicates that the market will see its usual autumn bounce, but warned that sellers face a crowded market, with the number of homes available to purchase at a 12-year high. "September's above-average price increase for the time of year is a possible early sign of the usual Autumn bounce in activity, though there is considerable ground to make up after a somewhat subdued and distracted summer," Rightmove said. On an annual basis, average asking prices declined 0.8%, slightly less than in August when prices were down 1.0% year-on-year.
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UK new and active job postings both increased annually last month, the Recruitment & Employment Confederation reported. The REC said the UK saw 1.7 million active job postings in August, up 10% from the same month in 2025, and up 1.8% from in July. New job postings fell 1.9% from July to 712,781 in August, although this represented a 3.6% rise on an annual basis. "The UK job market is showing signs of improvement compared to last year, as we move towards the final quarter of 2026, although hiring remains uneven across sectors, according to the latest [REC] Labour Market Tracker," the REC said, adding: "But it is disappointing to see new job postings fall for a second consecutive month.
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The UK Liberal Democrat party leader Ed Davey has signalled he would back the approval of the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea, which is under review by the current Labour government. Jackdaw, along with the Rosebank oil field, was approved by the last Conservative government but were struck down by the courts after a challenge from campaigners, with ministers told they had not fully considered their environmental impact. It falls to Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government to decide on whether to give the green light after further climate assessments.
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France's national debt is expected to reach its highest level since 1978 because of a soaring deficit, the country's finance ministry said Saturday. A ministry source told reporters the public debt would reach 119.3% of GDP in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027 - more than double the 60%-of-gross domestic product reference limit EU member countries are required to aim for. Those figures are unprecedented since 1978, according to France's statistics institute Insee. The source said the rise in France's debt was "automatic" as "a consequence of a deficit that remains high". Under EU rules, the public deficit - the annual shortfall of revenue to spending - is meant to be no more than 3% of GDP. But last year, it came in at 5.1% of GDP, and the government forecasts it will hit 5.4% this year.
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North Korea fired two projectiles into the sea off its eastern coast on Sunday, including at least one ballistic missile, South Korea's defence ministry has said. The incidents came days after Pyongyang reasserted its status as a nuclear-armed state and rejected a United Nations resolution demanding it halt its nuclear activities.
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The Kremlin-backed United Russia party has secured victory in Russia's parliamentary election, taking more than half of the vote, according to preliminary results reported by Russian news agencies. United Russia secured 57.9% of the vote after more than 50% of ballots have been counted, Interfax reported, citing the election commission. Predictions had placed the party, which has ruled for more than 20 years, below 50%. The election was Russia's first parliamentary vote since President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and was widely seen as a test of public backing for the war. The vote has been dismissed by democracy watchdogs, Western governments and Kremlin opponents as neither free nor fair, with critics accusing the authorities of excluding genuine opposition and tightly controlling the political landscape.
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COMPANY CALENDAR
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Novo Nordisk AS - capital markets day
Societe Generale SA - capital markets day
XPS Pensions Group PLC - dividend payment date
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TOP COMPANY NEWS
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Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang and OpenAI boss Sam Altman are among the tech leaders expected to attend a White House state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, a US official said Friday. Other expected attendees include Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, Space Exploration Technologies and Tesla's Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook and Alphabet's Google CEO Sundar Pichai. Also in the coming week, OpenAI's Altman is due to brief the UN Security Council next week during the annual gathering of world leaders for the UN General Assembly. The meeting is being organised by France.
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Reuters reported that Paramount Skydance is in talks to settle its planned USD110 billion buyout of Warner Bros Discovery within a matter of days. WBD is a New York-based media and entertainment company. Among the issues under discussion is independent monitoring of news broadcaster CNN, which is part of WBD. Paramount owns news outlet CBS. The US government, UK competition regulator and EU have already greenlit the deal, under which Paramount will pay USD31.00 per share in cash for all outstanding Warner Bros shares. California, several other states and the Writers Guild of America had sued to block the deal. Last month, Paramount filed a lawsuit in which it demanded that the states seeking to block the merger put up USD1.9 billion to cover fees Paramount will owe to WBD shareholders. Paramount had fought off interest from rival entertainment company Netflix Inc. Netflix had agreed in December to acquire WBD's studio and streaming assets. Paramount's deal, however, is for WBD as a whole.
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Alphabet, the Mountain View, California-based technology company, confirmed that Google's consumer AI model Gemini hacked multiple systems through guessing login credentials. The hacks, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, took place in May and were discovered by Google in July. "In a standard evaluation, the model found public information online and guessed credentials to access websites it thought were part of the test," Heather Adkins, Google's vice president of security engineering, told AFP in a statement. "In all three of these instances, the model stopped," Adkins added, without specifying which organisations were breached. We ensured the three entities were made aware, and we worked with our training partner on the changes they've now made to their testing processes."
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Telix Pharmaceuticals said it has agreed to a USD1.65 billion deal to merge with radioisotope supplier ITM Isotope Technologies. The Melbourne, Australia-based global radiopharmaceutical company said the merger will give it greater capabilities across development, production and manufacturing of isotopes. ITM is a Munich, Germany-based radioisotope producer. It produces lutetium-177, actinium-225 and terbium-161. Telix said it will pay USD1.65 billion in upfront consideration. ITM shareholders will be paid around USD1.25 billion in Telix shares at USD11.84 per share.
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ASX announced three new appointments including the hiring of Keir Barnes from Dexus Funds Management to serve as its next chief financial officer. In July, the Sydney-based operator of the Australian Securities Exchange said incumbent CFO Andrew Tobin has decided to retire, having been in the role since September 2022. Tobin will support the transition and continue to serve as CFO until Barnes joins the firm on a date that is yet to be disclosed. Barnes has been CFO at Dexus, a Sydney-based fully integrated real asset group, since October 2021. ASX also announced that in November former NZX CEO Mark Peterson will take on the newly created role of managing director, clearing and settlement. Elaine Vaisanen, former JPMorgan Asia-Pacific fund services head, is also set to join ASX in December as chief operating officer, succeeding Diona Rae who has served as COO since August 2023.
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Ingenia Communities said it has rejected an increased offer from Warburg Pincus for 100% of its share capital. Ingenia is a Sydney-based owner and operator with a portfolio of lifestyle, rental and holiday park assets across urban and coastal markets. On September 7, Ingenia rejected an offer from the New York-based private equity firm to acquire all Ingenia securities via a scheme of arrangement at AUD4.75 in cash per security, around USD3.38. The company has since received a revised proposal from Warburg that increased the price for each security by 6.3% to AUD5.05.
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Ramelius Resources issued production guidance for the financial years 2027 and 2030, forecasting considerable growth by the end of the decade. The Perth, Australia-based gold exploration and mining company expects gold production in the financial year ending June 30, 2030 to be between 560,000 and 610,000 ounces with all-in-sustaining costs at AUD2,100 to AUD2,400 per ounce, around USD1,496 to USD1,709. The outlook for financial year 2030 gold production is 11% higher than the company's October 2025 plan and marks a notable increase from financial year 2026 production of 192,182 ounces at an AISC of AUD1,983 per ounce. Meanwhile, financial year 2027 guidance anticipates gold production between 205,000 and 225,000 ounces at an AISC of AUD2,150 to AUD2,350 per ounce.
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Perpetual said it has rejected a new acquisition offer from Singapore-based Windflower. The Sydney-based financial services company said Windflower is indirectly controlled by Stockholm, Sweden-based investment company EQT. Perpetual said the offer was for 100% of Perpetual shares at AUD22.50 per share, as well as a possible dividend of 60 US cents per share paid to Perpetual shareholders. The proposed dividend represents an increase on EQT's previous offer made on July 27, which had the same cash value of AUD22.50 per Perpetual share. Perpetual said the offer undervalues Perpetual and is not in the best interests of shareholders. Perpetual said its engagement with EQT has concluded.
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By Harvey Dorset, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom [at] alliancenews.com
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WEEK AHEAD
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The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Tuesday 22 September
11:00 IST Ireland wholesale prices
Japan holiday. Financial markets closed.
09:00 CEST Switzerland current account
07:00 BST UK public sector net borrowing
10:00 EDT US Richmond Fed manufacturing index
16:00 CEST eurozone consumer confidence
Wednesday 23 September
09:00 AEST Australia flash composite PMI
09:15 CEST France flash composite PMI
09:30 CEST Germany flash composite PMI
Japan Autumn Equinox. Financial markets closed.
10:00 SAST South Africa CPI
15:00 SAST South Africa interest rate decision
South Africa Monetary Policy Committee meeting
09:30 BST UK flash composite PMI
09:45 EDT US flash composite PMI
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
10:00 CEST eurozone flash composite PMI
Thursday 24 September
11:30 AEST Australia employment change
11:30 AEST Australia participation rate
11:30 AEST Australia unemployment
08:30 EDT Canada manufacturer sales
08:30 EDT Canada retail sales
08:45 CEST France business climate indicator
08:45 CEST France business confidence
08:45 CEST France consumer confidence
10:00 CEST Germany Ifo business climate
09:30 JST Japan flash composite PMI
09:30 JST Japan flash manufacturing PMI
09:30 JST Japan flash services PMI
South Africa Heritage Day. Financial markets closed.
09:00 CEST Spain PPI
09:30 CEST Switzerland interest rate decision
07:50 EDT US building permits
08:30 EDT US current account
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
10:00 EDT US new home sales
10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks
11:00 EDT US Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
Friday 25 September
11:00 EDT Canada budget balance
China Mid-Autumn Festival. Financial markets closed.
08:00 CEST Germany consumer confidence
09:00 CEST Spain GDP
00:01 BST UK consumer confidence
08:30 EDT US durable goods orders
10:00 EDT US Michigan consumer sentiment index
10:00 CEST eurozone money supply
Top company events:
Tuesday 22 September
Kainos Group PLC - AGM
Kingfisher PLC - half year results
Smiths Group PLC - full year results
Tui AG - trading statement
Wednesday 23 September
Baltic Classifieds Group PLC - AGM
Cintas Corp - Q1 results
JD Sports Fashion PLC - half year results
Paychex Inc - Q1 results
Renishaw PLC - full year results
Thursday 24 September
Hennes & Mauritz AB - Q3 results
Halma PLC - trading statement
Costco Wholesale Corp - full year results
Victrex PLC - capital markets day
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
MONDAY: The week starts with a monetary policy decision in China. While its US, EU and Japan counterparts have opted to increase interest rates, the People's Bank of China is forecast to stand pat and leave its loan prime rates unchanged. China's one-year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, is 3.00%, and the five-year LPR, a reference rate for mortgages, is 3.50%. In August, the PBoC left rates unchanged for a 15th straight month, and analysts at ING expect the central bank to extend this streak in September. "Markets have pushed back expectations for a rate cut as policymakers opt for targeted measures such as interest rate subsidies, even as the rest of the world leans toward rate hikes," ING explains. Nonetheless, ING thinks conditions still support a rate cut before year-end amid slowing growth, low inflation, and weak credit activity. However, it's "increasingly possible" that the move could be pushed into next year if China remains on track to hit its 2026 growth target," ING adds. In March, China set its gross domestic product growth target for this year at 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious goal since early 1990s. Citigroup also expects the PBoC to hold LPRs unchanged again in September and thinks risks are rising for no cuts this year despite underwhelming economic data. "The PBoC could be in a difficult position and may stay cautious as global central banks hike rates," Citigroup analyst Xinyu Ji says.
MONDAY: Investors will be hoping for a boost when Novo hosts its capital markets day. Shares in the Danish pharmaceutical maker have slumped after disappointing trial updates, and as it tries to keep pace in the lucrative, but competitive, weight loss drugs market with rivals such as Eli Lilly. As a result, UBS thinks the CMD represents a "critical" opportunity for management to set out its mid-term strategy on how to navigate these challenges and drive longer term growth. The Swiss bank expects Novo, which recently simplified its name from Novo Nordisk, to focus on the potential for oral weight loss drugs, as a "significant obesity category where it can dominate". The broker expects a bullish tone on ex-US manufacturing scale coming on line, strong UK launch demand, and the mid-term potential of Novo's next generation high efficacy pipeline asset zenagamtide. With the commercial launch of CagriSema in obesity expected in the first half of 2027, UBS expects Novo to revisit the commercial case for the asset and try and "revitalise" investor interest in its potential to add to revenue growth in 2027-28. In addition, UBS looks for focus on the pipeline that could fill the significant patent cliff that Novo faces from 2032, with around USD35 billion of sales going off patent over 2032 to 2034. Novo's M&A strategy also will be scrutinised.
TUESDAY: Kingfisher heads into its half-year results after reporting a mixed first quarter against what it called a "soft market backdrop". The do-it-yourself retailer said like-for-like sales fell 0.9% in the three months ended April 30 with weak showings from B&Q in the UK, and Brico Depot and Castorama in France, offsetting progress at Screwfix. Bad weather played its part, but the FTSE 100 listing continues to target full-year adjusted pretax profit of GBP565 million to GBP625 million and free cash flow of GBP450 million to GBP510 million, following adjusted pretax profit of GBP560 million the year prior. Deutsche Bank Research analyst Adam Cochrane sees limited scope for a change to guidance at this stage despite highlighting "improving" industry data-points. Cochrane has increased his full-year profit forecast by 4% to GBP605 million, ahead of consensus at GBP580 million. He expects first-half adjusted pretax profit of GBP412 million, ahead of Vuma consensus at GBP372 million. Vuma consensus looks for half-year sales of GBP6.88 billion, with a like-for-like decline of 0.1%, and retail profit of GBP461 million. By division, LFL sales are forecast down 1.3% at B&Q, up 3.5% at Screwfix, down 1.3% at Castorama and down 2.3% at Brico Depot. Richard Hunter, head of markets, interactive investor says Kingfisher faces a number of challenges. "Increased taxes in both the UK and France are a burden on the group, while big ticket and seasonal sales expose Kingfisher to both cyclical pressure via housing markets as well as unpredictable weather."
TUESDAY: It's been a year of change at Smiths Group, with the industrial engineering company selling its Detection and Interconnect businesses for a combined GBP3.3 billion and launching a GBP1 billion share buyback with some of the proceeds. The disposals leave Smiths Group focused on John Crane, a technology provider for the energy and process industries, and Flex-Tek, a provider of engineered components that heat and move fluids and gases. For its financial year that ended July 31, company-compiled consensus looks for revenue from continuing operations of GBP1.92 billion, with organic revenue growth of 1.4%. John Crane drives the organic revenue forecast with a 2.4% increase projected, versus a modest 0.1% rise at Flex-Tek. In May, Smiths Group lowered its organic revenue growth guidance for the current financial year due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, forecasting growth of around 2%, down from 3% and 4% before. The Middle East region represents around 7% of revenue for Smiths Group, primarily from John Crane. Operating profit from continuing operations is estimated at GBP388 million as a margin of 20.2%. Earnings per share are forecast at 130.4 pence with a dividend per share of 47.9p. One fly in the ointment could be guidance, with Panmure Liberum expecting the financial 2027 outlook for organic revenue growth to be below the target range of 5% to 7%, reflecting a tough market backdrop and continuing disruption from the Middle East war.
WEDNESDAY: September's 'flash' purchasing manager index readings in the UK, Europe and the US are likely to remain volatile against the backdrop of the US-Iran war. In the UK, the August PMI survey showed the composite PMI improving for a second consecutive month, rising to a four-month high of 52.5 points. RBC Capital Markets also notes the services PMI survey showed a number of "notable" positives, rising to 52.8 points in August from 52.1 in July, with new orders holding in positive territory and optimism amongst firms rising to 66.9 points, the highest reading for the sub-index since January. But RBC points out the "deterioration" of the situation in the Middle East and rebound in energy prices presents a "headwind to the improvement seen in sentiment in recent months even if it may take a little longer to feed into activity." As a result, RBC looks for another improvement in the services PMI again in September, but says the risks to the outlook are gathering again. For the UK manufacturing PMI, August's deterioration in output and new orders are the main factors behind an expectation for it to fall slightly to 51.5 points from 51.7 in August, RBC says.
In the euro area, RBC thinks PMIs will "struggle" to improve further from the current level of 52.0 points for the composite index. "This is comfortably expansionary already and is close to the highest level for this index over the past three years. Furthermore, there has been little progress on resolving the situation in Iran since the last PMI report, and the energy market stress has broadened to gas markets and refined product margins. Both manufacturing and services indices are at roughly equivalent levels," RBC says. Therefore, the bank forecast only a modest fall in the composite PMI index to 51.5 in September.
UBS says that, if the PMIs show meaningful signs of slowing global activity, markets could start questioning whether current rate expectations have gone too far. "Such an outcome would likely put downward pressure on bond yields and reduce expectations for further tightening from both the Fed and the ECB," it says. Conversely, if business sentiment remains resilient and PMIs continue to improve despite higher energy costs, markets may "feel encouraged" to push rate expectations even higher, the Swiss bank says.
WEDNESDAY: The focus for half-year results from JD Sports Fashion will be more about future prospects, after the sports retailer slashed full-year profit guidance a month ago. Lancashire, England-based JD Sports now expects financial 2027 pretax profit before adjusting items of GBP700 million to GBP800 million, lowered from GBP750 million to GBP850 million previously. At the mid-point of guidance, this would be down 12% from GBP852 million posted in the 52 weeks to January 31, 2026. JD Sports said the guidance cut reflects underlying first-half sales trends and the promotional market backdrop, which may persist into the second half of the financial year. The latest warning has ramped up pressure on CEO Regis Schultz, who took the helm in September 2022. In April, the Financial Times said Schultz was the subject of a failed coup to oust him. JD Sports has suffered from what Bank of America calls an "overexposure" to brands such as Nike and adidas which make-up just over half its total sales. In addition, BofA says JD is overexposed to "lifestyle/fashion/newness categories in which footwear is not performing well currently." Investors will looking for an update on trading in North America where the group has made a big push in recent years. Company-compiled consensus forecast half-year sales of GBP5.90 billion, with organic sales down 0.7%, and like-for-like sales declining 2.8%. Pretax profit before adjusting items is projected at GBP279 million with full-year consensus at GBP727 million. Peel Hunt says JD "has done a lot of things right", but the results are "set to show that it has not been able to completely push back the tide". It added: "We expect to hear about how JD is continuing to make better use of its retail space, evolve the range in certain fascia, control costs, and develop its digital offering."
WEDNESDAY: Investors will hoping that McDonald's can serve up a vision of improved sales growth at its investor day, after an underwhelming year so far. Shares in the fast-food chain have fallen 17% in the past 12 months, and in its second quarter US comparable sales grew just 0.8%, slowing markedly from 3.9% in the first three months of the year. In response, McDonald's has hired Skye Anderson as the new president of McDonald's US, succeeding Joe Erlinger. At the investor day, McDonald's is expected to outline its new financial targets through 2030 and detail its 'Next' growth strategy. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish thinks the investor day could prove a "crucial clearing event" in which management "articulates a credible path" to re-accelerating same store growth. For the stock to rebound, Barish thinks management will have to convince investors the recent slowdown is "fixable (soon)". RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich thinks the key components of the 'Next' growth strategy will be 1) a completely redesigned store; 2) menu innovation increasingly targeted towards competing with specialty chains - specifically on beverages and chicken; 3) marketing with an increased focus on content creators and influencers and less emphasis on traditional media; and 4) hospitality.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Sports retailer adidas hosts its own two-day investor event at its headquarters in Herzogenaurach, Germany, at which it is expected to provide insights into the product pipeline for autumn/winter 2027 and a sneak peak into Los Angles Olympics innovations. Analysts think the event timing is helpful as it provides a chance for management to outline future areas of growth after the successful football World Cup. RBC Capital Markets says one of the main questions it has is the direction adidas plans to take its Lifestyle Footwear business in 2027, and where potential revenue growth can come from, given a fairly soft 2026. Apparel is unlikely to sustain elevated growth rates following a very strong year supported in part by the World Cup, RBC says, and therefore driving footwear acceleration will be important to underpin a 8% constant currency sales growth rate for financial 2027, in RBC's opinion. Bank of America strikes a similar theme and thinks the purpose of the investor day is to "argue against a cliff effect" in the revenue trend post-World Cup. JPMorgan expects the event to be product and strategy focused. "As the first major capital market event since Bjorn Gulden became CEO, the event should also include a comprehensive update on adidas' mid-term growth roadmap, especially as investors increasingly question the health of the athletic footwear market and the drivers of adidas's footwear growth going forward," JPMorgan analyst Chiara Battistinit says.
THURSDAY: August labour data is the last data print of note ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on September 28 to 29. JPMorgan analyst Ben Jarman expects the unemployment rate to hold at 4.5%, alongside a 15,000 employment gain and steady participation rate. With first-half real GDP tracking below potential, Jarman anticipates further softening in the jobs market through 2027. The JPMorgan analyst says that, if realised, his forecast is unlikely to alter the RBA's outlook for the labour market and keeps the central bank on track to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. "In our view, one hike should be sufficient to reaffirm vigilance on inflation, although this is a close call given the higher pain tolerance/neutral rate outlook suggested by recent commentary," Jarman says. In August, the RBA left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, as it had done in June. The last rate hike came in May when the cash rate was raised from 4.10%.
THURSDAY: Europe has interest rate calls in Switzerland, Norway and Sweden, with UBS expecting all three central banks to leave interest rates unchanged. In Switzerland, UBS expects the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy rate at 0%. "While inflation has moved somewhat higher and the Swiss franc has weakened, the SNB appears relatively comfortable with the current environment," UBS says. While a "surprise hike" cannot be ruled out entirely, it remains a "minority-risk scenario", in the view of UBS. The communication concerning a potential December hike will be a "key" focus, UBS says. "Should the SNB remain on hold and refrain from adopting a particularly hawkish tone, while other major central banks maintain their tightening bias, the Swiss franc could remain under pressure in the near term," the Swiss bank says. Goldman Sachs also expects the SNB to stay on hold on Thursday and "for the foreseeable future". Core inflation remains "subdued", while domestic inflation and foreign inflation excluding oil products were broadly stable over the past year, Goldman points out. "There is also little evidence so far of material energy-price spillovers into energy-sensitive core items," the US investment bank says. A December hike would become more likely only if energy-price pressures remain elevated and spread materially into core inflation, Goldman believes. Elsewhere, UBS expects Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank to remain on hold but their communication to be on the "hawkish" side. Bank of America expect Norges Bank, SNB and Riksbank to stay on hold, with "varying" degrees of hawkish bias. "To cut a long story short, we feel most comfortable with our SNB call - we expect the central bank to remain on hold until 2028," BofA says. "We are more nervous around Norges and Riksbank. Norges has a record of a hawkish bias, and while we still think they are more likely to stay on hold than not, we are getting more nervous that a hike might be in the pipeline if not next week, then later this year. For the Riksbank, we have delayed our rate hike call to December," BofA adds.
THURSDAY: Vistry's half-year results will see its new chief executive, Adam Daniels, outline his vision for the troubled housebuilder after a series of trading mishaps. Shares in the Kent-based firm have slumped 58% in the past year, leaving investors questioning the validity of its partnership model. This allows Vistry to work with housing associations and other partners to deliver mixed-tenure developments, reducing its reliance on selling homes directly to private buyers. The firm received a boost in August, winning initial funding of GBP350 million as part of the UK government's GBP39 billion social and affordable homes programme. The news offered some respite for investors after Vistry in July said its chief financial officer was stepping down and forecast a first-half pretax loss of around GBP30 million. RBC Capital Markets analyst Anthony Codling says it is clear that so far the partnership model is not delivering the results Vistry had hoped for, and he wants to understand why Daniels believes the model still can work. "We would like to see a worked example of how a partnership contract works over time, from start to finish, with explanations of where, how, and when cash is generated and what financial returns could be made," the analyst says. He thinks Daniels has a "great opportunity" to "make his mark", and explain why the "path to partnerships is the right path to be on". RBC's Codling believes that investors are looking for a frank appraisal of Vistry's current operational and financial health; what and why things went wrong; and what can and can't be fixed. "The former CEO was charismatic and talked the talk, but in our view investors want the warts-and-all view rather than the spin and are more interested in the walk towards profitability than the talk about a profitable partnership promised land," he says. Codling says Vistry's valuation reflects the fact that the firm has "more faith in its guidance than the market." UBS analyst Ami Galla thinks much of the bad news is now priced into the stock. She expects the strategic review to offer an initial view "on the scale of targeted leverage reduction, potential for order book growth and free cash flow recovery in the medium term."
THURSDAY: US President Donald Trump is due to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House, their second face-to-face meeting this year, with relations between the two economic powerhouses seemingly more stable after the tariff-led frictions of 2025. The Middle East war will likely dominate discussions along with talks around trade, technology and critical minerals. The existing tariff truce expires on November 10, with reports suggesting a possible reduction could be on the cards. Bank of America says expectations around the summit are "modest, with the most likely outcome being an extension of the current trade truce rather than any substantive breakthrough on tariffs, technology restrictions, or broader strategic issues." BofA's base case is a one-year extension of the existing trade truce, which maintains agreed tariff levels and suspends new export controls, providing policy stability beyond the November expiry. "However, we expect limited progress elsewhere. The two sides could establish a channel on AI governance and risk management, but we expect no change to advanced-chip access or existing export controls. In sum, we expect another summit focused on preserving stability rather than delivering a major breakthrough."
THURSDAY: Investors will likely focus on membership numbers and plans for how Costco plans to utilise tariff refunds when the Issaquah, Washington-based big box retailer reports fourth-quarter results. The impact of higher costs on margins will also be in the spotlight as will any signs of consumer weakness. RBC Capital Markets models quarterly net revenue growth of 11% on-year to USD95.5 billion, ahead of 10% consensus, and adjusted EPS of USD6.54 versus USD6.50. Costco reports sales figures monthly, and these showed US comparative sales, excluding fuel, increased 7.2% in the quarter versus 6.8% in the prior quarter. Bank of America says investors remain focused on total member growth, given the deceleration over the last few quarters. BofA explains the recent slowdown is primarily due to fewer warehouse openings in Asia and a normalisation from the large number of digital signups over the last few years. "We think 4% to 5% is a more normalised level of membership growth to expect over the medium term," BofA says, versus 4.1% in the third quarter. US tariff refunds will provide an "incremental source of funding for price investments", further enhancing Costco's competitive position, in BofA's view. BofA also thinks a special dividend could be on the cards over the next few quarters given Costco's healthy cash balance. BofA notes the last special dividend was paid in January 2024, and the company has historically distributed special dividends every two to three years. RBC does not expect investor sentiment to change much as a result of the print. It expects core gross margin pressure from higher fuel and transportation costs to be offset by tariff refunds and a modest inventory tailwind.
Week Ahead by Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
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