Trump says Ukraine and Russia agree energy ceasefire

12. Oct 2026

(AWP Alliance News) - European equities are called up after Yemen's Houthis renewed their attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

Here is what you need to know before the European market open on Monday:

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MARKETS

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CAC 40: called up 44.6 points, 0.6%, at 7,847.93

DAX 40: called up 157.9 points, 0.6%, at 25,245.17

FTSE 100: called up 39.2 points, 0.4%, at 10,591.25

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Hang Seng: up 0.2% at 24,253.70

S&P/ASX 200: up 0.8% at 8,781.70

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DJIA: closed up 423.31 points, 0.8%, at 51,654.95

S&P 500: closed up 46.18 points, 0.6%, to 7,811.54

Nasdaq Composite: closed up 172.83 points, 0.6%, at 27,366.17

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US 10-year Treasury yield: 5.24% (5.28%)

US 30-year Treasury yield: 5.60% (5.62%)

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EUR: higher at USD1.210 (USD1.1195)

GBP: higher at USD1.3247 (USD1.3233)

USD: lower at JPY158.23 (JPY158.36)

gold: higher at USD4,198.54 per ounce (USD4,189.88)

oil (Brent): lower at USD103.21 a barrel (USD104.86)

(changes since previous London equities close)

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Canada Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets closed.

10:30 BST UK Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks

13:50 BST UK Bank of England External Member Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann speaks

14:00 EDT US monthly budget statement

US Columbus Day. Bond markets closed.

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TOP ECONOMIC NEWS

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US President Donald Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an "energy ceasefire" to immediately halt attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. It comes after the US president's deal to obtain diesel from Russia opened a fresh rift with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" He did not give any further details and Moscow has not yet commented. The Ukrainian president said Trump's announcement of a ceasefire was "good news for everyone - and it is important that it become reality". But he said Russia had struck a power plant in Kyiv and energy facilities in Kharkiv after the US president's post about the ceasefire.

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President Trump said that he had secured Russia's agreement for a major release of diesel, as he eased war sanctions on Moscow in a push to lower energy costs ahead of midterm elections. Moscow has been hit with waves of sanctions by the US and partners since its 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. The deal comes weeks before key US elections where Trump's Republican Party risks losing its grip on Congress as voters express frustration over the mounting cost of living. "Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace," Trump said on social media after talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

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But Seven US senators from both parties issued a statement Sunday questioning the legality of President Trump's deal to allow Russian diesel exports despite a US ban in place since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. "Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin's brutal war against Ukraine," the joint statement from the senators began. "Congress was clear: the US should not import oil from Russia until it ends its aggression against Ukraine and ceases threats against our Nato Allies." The statement was co-signed by Democratic senators Jeanne Shaheen, Richard Blumenthal and Ron Wyden, and four Republican senators: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, John Curtis and Thom Tillis.

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Trump called for Ukraine to "get a new leader" after Volodymyr Zelensky slammed Washington's easing of Russian diesel sanctions, as the US president faces fuel price pressure weeks before midterm elections. Trump accused the Ukrainian president of blocking a deal with Moscow and ignoring instructions to not strike Russian refineries, while Kyiv and its European allies warned that easing pressure on Moscow would help fund the Kremlin's war. Trump said Zelensky had disobeyed his orders not to strike Russian refineries and that the attacks risked worsening fuel shortages linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

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EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that lifting sanctions on Russian diesel helped fuel the Kremlin's war on Ukraine, after US President Trump announced a deal for Moscow to supply fuel. "Russian strikes killed over 80 Ukrainian civilians in two days. Moreover, it has stepped up its hybrid attacks against Europe, both EU Member States and Nato allies," Kallas posted online. "Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war. This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won't," she wrote.

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Nato's top military commander is expected to deliver a warning to Russia over the alliance's ability to counter any attack, as worries grow over the threat from Moscow. Nato officials have said US General Alexus Grynkewich - the alliance's Supreme Allied Commander Europe - will elaborate his "theory of victory" over any potential attack at a security conference in Warsaw. The move from the top military commander comes as Nato seeks to send a message to Moscow to halt what Western officials say is a "hybrid" campaign of sabotage and interference against Ukraine's backers in the war against Russia. Fears have grown in recent months that the Kremlin is stepping up its actions after high-profile incidents including the discovery of an explosive-laden drone at a German airport. "The Supreme Allied Commander Europe's theory of victory is simple: maintain Nato's advantage, which is consistent with and grounded upon the alliance's deterrence and defence plans," Colonel Martin O'Donnell, a spokesman for the US general, said last week.

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The UK has pledged to "maintain pressure on Russia" through "the toughest sanctions regime" it had ever imposed, after Trump announced the deal to buy diesel from Moscow. Responding to the announcement, a UK government spokesperson said the UK's position "could not be clearer". They said: "We will continue working closely with international partners to ensure Ukraine has the military and financial support it needs to defend itself." "We will also maintain pressure on Russia through the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed by the UK, increasing the cost of Putin's aggression and supporting efforts to secure a just and lasting peace," they added.

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Putin has told Trump about Iran's position on a possible Middle East peace deal, the Kremlin said. The Kremlin said Tehran's stance was relayed in a phone call held between the two leaders on Friday. It did not say how Trump responded, nor elaborate on Iran's position. Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of a summit in Turkmenistan earlier this week, where the Russian leader expressed an interest in helping broker peace.

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Trump said he would soon decide whether to join Saudi strikes against Iran-backed Houthis after an attack on Riyadh's international airport. "We may. We're going to look at it. We just found out about the recent attack, so we'll make a decision," Trump told reporters at the White House. "We move very quickly."

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A fresh Houthi strike hit Riyadh's international airport on Sunday, a day after an attack claimed by the Yemeni group killed at least a dozen people and forced authorities to suspend operations there. Saturday's attack prompted the Saudi-led coalition to vow a decisive response against Yemen's Houthis. The coalition blamed the Iran-backed group for the strike on King Khalid International Airport, describing it as a "full-fledged war crime" that a diplomatic source attributed to a missile. The attack came during an unprecedented wave of Houthi strikes on the kingdom since a truce in the group's long-running war with Yemen's Riyadh-backed government unravelled in July.

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Ireland, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, suggested slashing the bloc's next proposed budget by EUR140 billion, in a quest to bridge deep divisions and reach a deal by the end of the year. EU countries have been wrangling over the size of the next budget, with Germany spearheading calls for major cuts to an earlier proposal of nearly EUR2 trillion by Brussels. Leaders from the 27-nation bloc will meet in Brussels next week to discuss the plan as they seek to reach an agreement on the 2028-2034 budget by Christmas.

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Taiwan aims to "deter war" by increasing its defence spending, the democratic island's leader said, as China uses military pressure to assert its territorial claims. "Our aim by increasing investment in national defence is not to provoke, rather, it is to deter war," President Lai Ching-te said in a speech to celebrate Taiwan's National Day. Lai's government has earmarked a record NTD1.1 trillion, around USD34.5 billion, in defence spending for 2027, which accounts for more than 3% of GDP.

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China and the EU can avoid "escalation" in various contentious disputes, Beijing said, as worries of a damaging trade war simmer. Discussions last week in Beijing between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic were "successful" and marked "a new starting point", China's commerce ministry said in an online statement. "The outcomes and consensus reached by both sides fully demonstrate that China and the EU have both the willingness and the wisdom to manage and properly handle differences through dialogue and consultation, and to effectively avoid escalation of frictions," it said.

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French President Emmanuel Macron's popularity has fallen to its lowest level since taking office in 2017, according to a poll. The Ipsos BVA-Cesi survey found that just 15% of respondents held a favourable view of Macron, down one point from a month earlier and the lowest score of his presidency. Among politicians seen as potential successors to Macron, far-right leaders Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen remained the most popular, with approval ratings of 33 and 32% respectively.

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Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez aims to pull off another unlikely comeback as he began campaigning on Saturday for a snap vote dominated by housing protests that have shaken Spain. The socialist, in power since 2018, has acquired greater international prominence in recent years as his clashes with US President Trump and Israel endeared him to disillusioned global progressives. But he is a more divisive figure at home and trails in most polls to the main conservative Popular Party.

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COMPANY CALENDAR

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Hays PLC - trading statement

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TOP COMPANY NEWS

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Nvidia is considering boosting its backing in Reflection AI, the Financial Times reported, with the buy of more shares in the developer of open-weight models, or even an "acqui-hire", among the options. The Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker, at the heart of the artificial intelligence movement, is already one of Reflection's largest shareholders. The FT noted Nvidia has already invested USD800 million in Reflection. Quoting people with direct knowledge of the matter, the FT reported that talks between Nvidia and Reflection are at an early stage. The FT reported that terms under discussion could not be established, though Reflection was last valued at USD25 billion in a March funding round. Nvidia may buy more equity in Reflection, or even go down the route of an "acqui-hire", which sees it hire staff and license technology. This would avoid a long antitrust probe that would come if a full acquisition were pursued.

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Brazilian prosecutors on Friday filed an unprecedented lawsuit against oil firm Shell's subsidiary in the country, demanding USD108 million in compensation over deadly 2024 floods. Torrential rains sparked historic flooding in southern Brazil in April and May of that year, leaving nearly 200 people dead, 500,000 more displaced and massive damages. According to the lawsuit, Shell's liability should match its contribution to global warming - estimated at 2% of historical global greenhouse gas emissions.

"This civil suit is aimed at holding the defendant company accountable, in terms of its environmental and climate-related responsibilities, for collective material and moral damages stemming from the extreme weather event that hit Rio Grande do Sul state," public prosecutors said, according to court documents seen by AFP.

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Venezuela has authorised Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service to operate in the country, formally lifting a ban put in place under ousted president Nicolas Maduro, a fierce critic of the tech billionaire. The National Telecommunications Commission, Conatel, announced on Friday that it had granted seven licenses to Space Exploration Technologies' Venezuela subsidiary to operate the Starlink service throughout the country. Before the formal authorisation, an estimated 3.6% of internet users in Venezuela were already accessing the web through Starlink, according to APNIC data.

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CrowdStrike Holdings Inc on Friday said it received notice of an unsolicited "mini-tender" offer from Tutanota. The Austin, Texas-based cybersecurity firm said it recommends that shareholders do not tender their shares as they will receive below-market price. It added that it does not endorse Tutanota. Tutanota, registered in the Caribbean Island of Nevis, has previously launched mini-tender offers for firms including Pfizer and Qualcomm. CrowdStrike said the offer was for 500,000 CrowdStrike shares at a price of USD260.00 per share. The firm said the offer accounts for less than 0.05% of outstanding CrowdStrike shares.

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By Harvey Dorset, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to newsroom [at] alliancenews.com

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WEEK AHEAD:

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The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.

Top economic events:

Tuesday 13 October

11:30 AEDT Australia RBA meeting minutes

11:30 AEDT Australia business confidence

08:00 CEST Germany CPI

14:30 CEST Germany current account

01:01 IST Ireland construction PMI

08:50 JST Japan PP

04:00 BST UK Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene speaks

08:00 BST UK Worldpanel UK grocery market share data

00:01 BST UK BRC retail sales monitor

08:55 EDT US Redbook index

10:00 EDT US existing home sales

Wednesday 14 October

11:00 AEDT Australia Westpac leading index

09:30 CST China CPI

09:30 CST China PPI

11:00 CST China trade balance

08:00 CEST Germany wholesale prices

09:00 CEST Spain CPI

07:00 BST UK Bank of England Chief Economist and Executive Director Huw Pill speaks

08:30 EDT US CPI

14:00 EDT US Fed's Beige Book

11:00 CEST IEA oil market report

Thursday 15 October

11:30 AEDT Australia unemployment

08:30 EDT Canada capacity utilization

08:30 EDT Canada manufacturing sales

11:00 CEST eurozone industrial production

08:45 CEST France CPI

11:00 IST Ireland trade balance

10:30 JST Japan Bank of Japan policy board member Koeda Junko speaks

13:30 JST Japan industrial production

08:30 CEST Switzerland producer and import prices

07:00 BST UK GDP

07:00 BST UK industrial production

07:00 BST UK manufacturing production

07:00 BST UK trade balance

08:30 EDT US New York empire state manufacturing index

08:30 EDT US PPI

08:30 EDT US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims

09:30 EDT US retail sales

10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks

12:00 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks

12:00 EDT US NOPA crush report

Friday 16 October

08:15 EDT Canada housing starts

08:30 EDT Canada foreign securities purchases by canadians

11:00 CEST eurozone CPI

11:00 CEST eurozone trade balance

11:00 CEST Italy CPI

12:00 CEST Italy trade balance

03:00 BST UK Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks

08:30 EDT US export and import prices

09:15 EDT US industrial production

Top company events:

Tuesday 13 October

Bellway PLC - full year results

Capital Gearing Trust PLC - Q3 results

Citigroup Inc - Q3 results

Givaudan SA - Q3 results

Goldman Sachs Group Inc - Q3 results

IntegraFin Holdings PLC - trading statement

JPMorgan Chase & Co - Q3 results

Lonza Group Ltd - capital markets day

Oxford Instruments PLC - trading statement

Michael Page PLC - trading statement

Wells Fargo & Co - Q3 results

Whitbread PLC - half year results

Wednesday 14 October

Ashmore Group PLC - trading statement

ASML Holding NV - Q3 results

Bank of America Corp - Q3 results

BlackRock Inc - Q3 results

discoverIE Group PLC - trading statement

Evolution Mining Ltd - Q1 results

Fastenal Co - Q3 results

Keller Group PLC - capital markets day

Rio Tinto PLC - trading statement

Thursday 15 October

Antofagasta PLC - trading statement

Bank of Queensland Ltd - full year results

Brunello Cucinelli Spa - trading statement

Dunelm Group PLC - trading statement

Ericcson AB - Q3 results

Gerresheimer AG - Q3 results

Jupiter Fund Management PLC - trading statement

MMG Ltd - Q3 results

Mondi PLC - trading statement

Nordea Bank AB - Q3 results

Travis Perkins PLC - trading statement

Workspace Group PLC - trading statement

Friday 16 October

Netwealth Group Ltd - trading statement

Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.

TUESDAY: Whitbread's half-year results come amid a five-year transformation plan as it looks to revive fortunes and keep activist investors happy at the same time. The Premier Inn owner unveiled the revised, less capital-intensive, five-year plan alongside full-year results in April. In May, shareholder Corvex published a letter criticising management and calling for the company to be put up for sale. Peel Hunt says first quarter results in June added little to the investment story, with UK accommodation sales up 3% (revenue per available room up 2%) and Food & Beverage sales down 5%, reflecting the impact of closing or selling F&B sites as part of the plan to exit the high street restaurant business and repurpose some of the space released for accommodation. Peel Hunt expects a similar tone with first half results: modest growth, partly resulting from the implementation of the 'accelerating growth plan', which "should release capital and improve returns, but not this year". Hunter at interactive investor calls Whitbread a "work in progress". "The strategy seems sound, but execution risk and a five-year timeframe until the benefits wash through are major hurdles which Whitbread will need to overcome," he adds. UBS expects second quarter UK RevPAR to be 1.5% on-year versus 2.4% consensus, down from 1.8% in the first quarter, and Germany RevPAR to be 6% on-year versus consensus of 7.1% and 2% in the first quarter. UBS forecast group net unit growth of 1.4% on-year, ahead of 1.2% consensus. Consensus looks for revenue of GBP1.57 billion, pretax profit of GBP276 million and net income of GBP197 million. Aside from the numbers, investors will be eyeing updates on current trading, commentary on guidance, on inflation, and the upcoming budget.

TUESDAY: BP is expected to report a strong trading update for the third quarter reflecting the soaring oil price. The oil major will provide the update ahead of third quarter earnings at the end of the month. In August, BP forecast third quarter upstream production to be 2.100 million to 2.250 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 2.201 million boe/d in the second quarter, including the impact of continued disruption in the Middle East. In its customers business, compared to the second quarter, BP forecast a significantly lower result, with broadly flat volumes and a lower midstream result, as well as lower earnings in Castrol due to the lagged impact of higher base oil costs. In products, BP expects throughput of 1.300 million to 1.360 million b/d. UBS sees BP as the biggest beneficiary from the Middle East crisis, with excess cash available to be used to pay down debt more quickly than expected.

TUESDAY: Johnson & Johnson's Innovative Medicines division is expected to be the prime driver of third quarter earnings growth, while investors will also look for an update on the firm's orthopaedics business amid reports it is close to being sold. FactSet consensus looks for the Brunswick, New Jersey-based healthcare company to report revenue of USD25.36 billion in the third quarter and EPS of USD2.78 compared to USD23.9 billion and USD2.12 the year prior. Investors will be looking for continued momentum from its multiple-myeloma franchise, Darzalex, inflammatory treatment Tremfya, cancer drug Carvykti and psoriasis drug Icotrokinra/Icotyde, as J&J continues to move past the US Stelara loss of exclusivity. Stelara treats inflammatory conditions including psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis and generated around USD10 billion sales at its peak. It started facing competition in Europe in 2024 and in the US in 2025. As one of the first to report this quarter, Citigroup thinks management's commentary on the procedure environment will be important as always. Additional key topics likely include: puts and takes on updated 2026 guidance; adoption trends of new Innovative Medicines therapies; the pipeline, and expectations for 2027; updates on the Electrophysiology market; and commentary on the macroeconomic environment. RBC Capital Markets does not expect a guidance upgrade, but says this would be a "bullish move" ahead of the Enterprise Business Review on December 8. At the EBR, JPMorgan looks for "increased granularity" on growth targets; updates on the pharma pipeline; and updated views on MedTech. An update on the progress towards selling its orthopaedics business will also be keenly watched. Last month, Bloomberg reported Apollo Global is in talks to buy the unit for USD20 billion after J&J, last year, said it intended to separate the operation which generated sales of USD9.2 billion in 2024.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: As usual US banks kick start the third quarter reporting season with results due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo among others. After a period of sustained strength, share prices across the sector have come under pressure in recent months with stocks down around 15% from 52 weeks highs. JPMorgan analyst Vivek Juneja puts this down to "concerns about the economy with continued high inflation, and also some weakness due to concerns about the impact of AI tools on deposits and deposit costs. Bond markets have sold off and a large recent debt issuance has performed very poorly. Equity markets have been choppy and issuance has been postponed". To restore positive bank stock sentiment, UBS analyst Erika Najarian seeks reassurance that the capital markets pipeline is still robust, loan growth is generally intact despite slower trends versus the first half, and that deposit costs aren't accelerating beyond market expectations. Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala, who notes the US bank stock index is down 12.0% since its mid-August high, thinks improved visibility on the durability of the AI-capex cycle and AI disruption concern could pave the way for a year-end rally.

For the third quarter, RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy thinks the focus will be on core EPS growth and business trends including credit quality, net interest margins, capital markets activity, loan growth and the impact of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. He also looks for commentary about the outlook for loan growth, especially commercial & industrial loans which data suggests grew about 10% in the quarter. Capital market revenues will be a focus for selected banks, and he expects to hear positive commentary on the Markets & Investment Banking businesses for a seasonally slow quarter. Wealth management revenue growth should be strong again and credit quality resilient, Cassidy says, but industries that are exposed to rising fuel costs, or companies with excess leverage, will be scrutinised by investors.

At JPMorgan Chase, Visible Alpha consensus looks for net interest income of USD26.94 billion, with current full-year guidance of USD105.5 billion or USD96.5 billion ex-Markets. Fee income is forecast at USD24.77 billion with analysts eyeing high-teens growth in markets revenue and investment banking. Expenses are seen at USD27.18 billion with full-year guidance of USD107.5 billion, although analysts think revenue-related expenses will push the guide above this prior mark. EPS is projected at USD5.90 and return on tangible common equity of 20.84%.

For Citigroup, VA consensus looks for net interest income of USD16.55 billion, with NII ex-markets expected to grow at the top end of the 5% to 6% range in 2026. Fee income is forecast at USD7.16 billion, driven by Banking, Services, Wealth, and Cards. Expenses are seen at USD14.43 billion, EPS at USD2.64 and RoTCE of 12.25%. Citi now targets full-year 2026 RoTCE of a bit above 11%, near-term 2027-2028 targets of 11% to 13% with 2028 in the top half of that range, and medium-term targets of 14% to 15%.

At Wells Fargo, VA consensus looks for net interest income of USD12.68 billion, with full-year guidance currently at USD50 billion, or USD48 billion, ex-Markets. Fee income is forecast at USD9.71 billion, with double-digit growth in investment advisory fees, brokerage commissions, and investment banking fees. Expenses are seen at USD13.88 billion, EPS at USD1.83 and RoTCE of 16.39%.

For Goldman Sachs, VA consensus looks for Investment Banking revenue of USD2.93 billion and Asset & Wealth Management revenue of USD4.63 billion. Net interest income is seen at USD3.83 billion with total operating revenue of USD16.95 billion. Earnings per share are projected to be USD13.64. Aside from the numbers, attention will focus on management succession after a recent Wall Street Journal report flagged that the bank was contemplating a plan to name Chief Operating Officer John Waldron to the CEO role, with a hand-off from current CEO David Solomon occurring in either late 2027 or early 2028. Solomon would move to chair.

At Morgan Stanley, VA consensus looks for Investment Banking revenue of USD2.34 billion, Trading revenue of USD5.69 billion and Wealth Management revenue of USD7.24 billion. Net interest income is seen at USD2.81 billion with total net revenue of USD20.14 billion. Morgan Stanley has said it expects equities to be down sequentially in the third quarter after a record second quarter. Net earnings are forecast at USD4.85 billion with EPS of USD3.03.

For Bank of America, FactSet consensus expects net interest income of USD16.47 billion, net interest margin of 2.11%, non-interest income of USD14.62 billion, non-interest expenses of USD18.38 billion and EPS of USD1.17. Markets revenue is projected to be USD5.37 billion, FICC revenue at USD2.65 billion, Equities revenue at USD2.71 billion and total Investment Banking revenue at USD1.78 billion. At the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference in September BofA CEO Brian Moynihan announced that the bank expects third quarter investment banking fees to drop by at least 10% to 20% year-over-year.

WEDNESDAY: ASML, the most valuable listed company in Europe, is expected to report a solid quarter backed by robust order trends and continuing demand strength, with attention also on the outlook for the next two years. In July, the Veldhoven, Netherlands-based semiconductor manufacturer raised its full-year sales outlook, supported by strong order intake in its second quarter, and analysts at RBC Capital Markets think a "beat/raise" is on the cards this time around too. For the third quarter, RBC expects revenue to be slightly above EUR11.5 billion consensus with EPS of EUR10.69. Similarly, RBC expects fourth quarter outlook to be 3% to 5% above revenue consensus of EUR13.9 billion and EPS of EUR13.13. JPMorgan looks for revenue of EUR11.64 billion in the third quarter, up 25% quarter-on-quarter, and 55% on-year, in line with consensus expectations and company guidance of EUR11.0 billion to EUR12.0 billion. JPM forecasts a gross margin of 56.1% versus company guidance of 55% to 57% and consensus at 55.7%, and an EPS of EUR10.84 per share, 2.6% above consensus. Looking ahead, analysts at Jefferies expect ASML to likely stay with its plan to build 85 and 110 extreme ultraviolet lithography systems in 2027 and 2028, while RBC thinks the low-end of the range could rise to 90. RBC sees "upward bias but are unsure if management will raise the number during 3Q26 earnings." In addition, ASML has indicated that it will ship 169 deep ultraviolet lithography immersion tools in 2027.

WEDNESDAY: September's US inflation report is projected to show one of the chunkiest monthly hikes in consumer prices of the past few years. UBS says its forecast of 0.56% consumer price growth in September is behind only March's 0.87% and April's 0.64% this year for the largest increase since the autumn of 2022. As with those earlier increases, petrol and energy commodity prices are projected to show a considerable jump of 9.2% in September. On a 12-month basis the headline consumer price inflation rate is projected to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.4% in August. This would be cooler than the 4.3% peak in May, but well above both the 2.4% in February before the start of the Iran conflict, and the 3.0% pace in September of last year. In contrast to the strength in the headline CPI, UBS projects a moderate core consumer price increase of 0.2% on-month, below the 0.3% rise in August. On a 12-month basis the core inflation rate is projected to remain stable at 2.4%. UBS points out that at this level, inflation would be only 10 to 15 basis points above the level generally consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee's 2.0% PCE inflation target. Bank of America forecast headline CPI will rise 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting the sharp increase in petrol prices, and expects core CPI to rise 0.2% on-month and 2.5% on-year. "While still above the pace consistent with the Fed's 2% target, the print may not be strong enough to materially shift market expectations toward an October rate hike following recent dovish remarks from Fed officials," BofA remarks. Morgan Stanley projects core CPI at up 0.2% on-month and 2.5% on-year, with headline CPI at 0.6% on-month an 3.7% on-year. "We expect core services inflation to decelerate, mainly reflecting a normalization in communication services as the one-off increase in wireless telephone fees does not repeat this month. We forecast still-positive core goods inflation, driven by higher vehicle prices and ongoing, albeit modest, pressure from AI-related demand," Morgan Stanley says.

WEDNESDAY: Rio Tinto is expected to leave guidance on hold when it updates on third quarter trading and production. The diversified global miner has leading positions in iron ore, aluminium, copper, and minerals. Analysts note that under new CEO Simon Trott, the focus has sharpened around operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation. The FTSE 100 listed miner enjoyed a strong first half of 2026 with attributable net earnings in the six months to June 30 surging 47% to USD6.66 billion from USD4.53 billion a year prior. Shareholders were rewarded with a 43% increase to the dividend to 211.00 US cents. At the time Rio Tinto maintained its annual copper production guidance of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes and iron ore sales of 343 million to 366 million wet metric tonnes. Analysts expect key guidance to be maintained despite previously flagged issues at Iron Ore Co of Canada and Kennecott. For the third quarter, Visible Alpha consensus forecast Pilbara iron ore shipments of 84.4 million tonnes and production of 83.9 million tonnes. Bauxite production is forecast of 15,517 thousand tonnes, alumina production is forecast of 2,005 thousand tonnes, aluminium production is forecast of 849 thousand tonnes, copper production is forecast of 209 thousand tonnes and titanium oxide production is forecast of 258 thousand tonnes.

THURSDAY: Antofagasta follows its sector peer Rio Tinto with its own trading and production update a day later. The miner provides investors with nearly pure-play copper exposure from a diversified portfolio of assets in Chile. But it has faced challenges from poor weather which led it to cut its annual copper production outlook in August. The firm is aiming to advance its projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres towards the completion of commissioning in 2027. But the Los Pelambres mine was temporarily shutdown due to exceptional adverse weather conditions. As a result, Antofagasta now expects copper output in the range of 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes for the whole of 2026, its outlook cut from 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes previously. Copper production was 653,700 tonnes in 2025, down from 664,000 in 2024. For the third quarter, Visible Alpha consensus forecasts copper production of 167,000 tonnes, copper sales of 170,000 tonnes, and gold production of 57,000 tonnes.

THURSDAY: UK economic growth is expected to slow in August after July's better-than-expected 0.4% on-month expansion. Deutsche Bank expects GDP to come in flat in August. It points out much of the strength in July GDP came from more volatile industries in the national accounts - something it thinks will reverse in August. Deutsche thinks the unfolding energy shock, alongside a reversal of one-off World Cup effects, will keep August GDP unchanged, with services output up 0.1% on-month and both the production and construction sectors down 0.3%. Deutsche also notes the August release will come alongside the Office for National Statistics' recent 'Blue Book' revisions, which will open the whole monthly GDP series for 2026. Blue Book revisions update the national accounts with new service sector data, supply and use tables, and methodological changes. Deutsche says it wouldn't be surprised if July GDP itself was revised lower. Looking ahead, Deutsche expects GDP momentum to take a step down over the coming months. It expects 2026 GDP to run closer to 1.4% before edging higher through the next two years.

THURSDAY: Brunello Cucinelli is expected to get the European luxury goods reporting season off to a strong start. While the sector as a whole is likely to have taken a step down in the third quarter after a better second, high-end fashion is thought to have done well. RBC Capital Markets expects Solomeo, Italy-based Brunello Cucinelli to report third quarter revenues of EUR372 million, up 11% year-on-year, or 13% on an organic basis, with retail revenue of EUR239 million, up 16% organically, and wholesale sales of EUR133 million, up 6.6% on an organic basis. RBC anticipates a modest deceleration for retail from the second quarter when it reported organic growth of 19%. For wholesale, the quarter is an important period for autumn/winter product deliveries, which RBC believes have been progressing well. By region, RBC estimates organic growth in Europe of 8.2%, Americas of 19% organically and Asia of 11%. For 2026 guidance, RBC believes Brunello Cucinelli trends are towards the top of the existing 10% to 11% organic growth guidance range which the broker thinks leave room to the upside. UBS expects investors to focus on third quarter trading trends, particularly across the Americas and Europe; the sustainability of double-digit sales growth and potential risks from shifting fashion trends; operating leverage and the margin outlook; inventory discipline and discounting practices; and visibility on growth beyond 2026.

THURSDAY: Higher fuel, power and fibre prices will likely keep earnings under pressure at Mondi, although rising prices should help offset this, analysts think. Jefferies expects third quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of EUR205 million, noting a "challenging" cost inflation backdrop, up from EUR167 million in the prior three months. FTSE 250-listed Mondi is an integrated European packaging & paper group, manufacturing packaging paper, converted packaging products, and office paper. JPMorgan calculates the price/cost environment to have been slightly positive since the second quarter, with price rises adding around EUR190 million to Ebitda on an annualised basis. However, over the same period, power, fibre and fuel costs have increased as well, and JPM estimates an incremental Ebitda headwind of EUR150 million from these three items alone on an annualised basis.

THURSDAY: Third quarter results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co will set a marker for the forthcoming technology earnings season. TSMC manufactures chips exclusively for other companies such as Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm and according to analysts at AJ Bell has become one of the most important enablers of the AI revolution. This is due to its fabrication capabilities in leading-edge silicon chips, AJ Bell notes. With expectations high and consensus earnings expectations near the top of company guidance, AJ Bell thinks a "simple beat won't be enough to excite investors". AJ Bell thinks investors will look for confirmation of its commitment to expanding capacity to signal confidence that growth rates have not peaked. JPMorgan expects TSMC to emphasise: continued strong demand from AI; mild upside to 2026 capex; and strong messaging on competitiveness and leading edge market share. JPM expects revenue and gross margin to come in at the high-end of guidance range. It looks for revenue of USD45.8 billion, up 14% quarter-on-quarter, and gross margin of 66.8%, while fourth quarter revenue growth guidance should reach 11% on-quarter.

FRIDAY: Man Group has been in favour ahead of its third quarter trading statement. The London-based investment manager has attracted rating upgrades from UBS and Citigroup and a raft of price target increases from other analysts. The positive mood reflects more constructive expectations on the outlook for flows, fee margins and earnings. For the third quarter, Bank of America forecast assets under management to be up 3% quarter-on-quarter driven by USD3 billion of net flows in both alternatives and long-only. Citigroup forecasts annual net flows of 6.5% to 7.0%, above Visible Alpha consensus of 5.5%, and expects Man to sustain 5.0% to 5.5% annual organic growth thereafter versus 4% consensus. UBS expects material upgrades to consensus EPS forecasts and longer-term, views Man Group's business model positively and thinks the company, through its technology, has a sustainable competitive advantage over peers. "We also expect institutional investors to increase allocations to Man Group's liquid alternatives and credit strategies in the coming years," UBS adds. Bank of America highlights the potential for further share buybacks as the latest USD50 million is now complete.

By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter

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