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(AWP Alliance News) - European equities are set to open the week a mixed bag as Iran warned the US over the weekend that any new war could last longer than the last conflict between the two countries.
"A potential future war could last longer than previous conflict, and the American president would not be in a position to dictate the timing or the conditions of its conclusion," an Iranian army spokesman said.
On Sunday, another ship was struck by projectiles in the Persian Gulf, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency.
Brent crude was hovering around the USD110 per barrel mark in early trading.
Here is what you need to know before the European market open on Monday:
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MARKETS
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CAC 40: called up 25.1 points, 0.3%, at 7,994.52
DAX 40: called up 53.3 points, 0.2%, at 25,871.51
FTSE 100: called down 16.8 points, 0.2%, at 10,712.98
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Hang Seng: up 0.6% at 23,437.41
Nikkei 225: up 0.5% at 63,602.41
S&P/ASX 200: down 0.6% at 8,855.50
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DJIA: closed down 572.25 points, 1.1%, at 51,770.31
S&P 500: closed down 140.32 points, 1.8%, to 7,580.07
Nasdaq Composite: closed down 747.73 points, 2.9%, at 25,437.00
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US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.93% (4.94%)
US 30-year Treasury yield: 5.31% (5.31%)
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EUR: higher at USD1.1174 (USD1.1163)
GBP: lower at USD1.3389 (USD1.3396)
USD: higher at JPY157.94 (JPY157.50)
gold: higher at USD3,900.24 per ounce (USD3,898.22)
oil (Brent): lower at USD109.79 a barrel (USD117.61)
(changes since previous London equities close)
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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10:30 EST Canada manufacturing PMI
10:00 CET eurozone manufacturing PMI
09:50 CET France manufacturing PMI
08:00 CET Germany retail sales
09:55 CET Germany manufacturing PMI
09:45 CET Italy manufacturing PMI
09:15 CET Spain manufacturing PMI
09:30 CET Switzerland manufacturing PMI
09:30 GMT UK manufacturing PMI
09:00 EST US ISM manufacturing PMI
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TOP ECONOMIC NEWS
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Iran warned that any new war with the US could last longer than the previous conflict and that US President Donald Trump would not be the one to determine its duration. "A potential future war could last longer than previous conflict, and the American president would not be in a position to dictate the timing or the conditions of its conclusion," said army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia, according to Iranian state television. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the US has knocked out much of Iran's military but still has to "take care of" one or two targets, as Tehran warned of reprisals if attacked.
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A tanker came under fire in the Gulf east of Saudi Arabia on Sunday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said. The vessel was hit by two unknown projectiles as it was travelling 72 nautical miles, around 133 kilometres, east of Ras al-Khafji. "All crew are accounted for and there is no reported environmental impact at this time," Ukmto said. The Gulf hosts key ports and loading facilities and lies near the Strait of Hormuz, which has become the central point of conflict between Tehran and Washington in the Iran war.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that he spoke to Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of G20 talks and discussed a possible interaction between both countries' leaders next month. "We spoke just briefly about the opportunity for our leaders to potentially interact at APEC next month," Rubio said, referring to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group's summit in the Chinese city of Shenzhen in mid-November. But Rubio stressed at a press conference that he did not have a formal meeting with Lavrov during the two-day gathering of G20 foreign ministers in Atlanta, Georgia.
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The Trump administration green-lit the sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, the State Department said, but the Ukrainian president warned deliveries could take years. The approval, which goes to Congress for review, comes after weeks of complaints by Ukrainian authorities that its supplies of the interceptor missiles were dwindling. "The proposed sale will improve Ukraine's capability to meet current and future threats by improving its integrated air and missile defense capabilities," the department said in a statement.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that his country would stop hitting Russian oil refineries - a key demand of President Trump - if Washington provided Kyiv with powerful Patriot interceptor missiles. Trump, battling inflation at home driven in large part by soaring energy prices fuelled by his war on Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has demanded the European foes stop attacking each other's energy sites. Speaking to US broadcaster Fox News on Sunday, Zelensky said he had had "different and several" conversations with Trump and his team about the issue. "We asked that we can't not respond after Russia's attack on our energy, after Russia is killing our people, attacks on our electricity, gas, refineries, on everything," he told Fox News host Trey Yingst. "We said that if you want us not to attack Russia's refineries, they have not to attack our energy system. Another alternative, give us Patriot missiles, we will find money, not just aid."
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President Zelensky is willing to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for direct talks in Turkey, he said in an interview with broadcaster CNN Turk on Sunday. "Yes, we are ready," Zelensky said when asked whether he would be prepared to meet Putin in Turkey. The Ukrainian leader had discussed the possibility of Turkish mediation in the war with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a day earlier. Zelensky said the talks had also covered the possibility of a three-way meeting involving the leaders of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey. If Turkey could arrange such a meeting, Ukraine would welcome it and be willing to participate, he said. Zelensky has repeatedly said he is willing to meet Putin face to face, but the Russian leader has insisted that any such meeting take place in Moscow, a condition Zelensky has rejected.
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The longest truce of the Ukraine war, limited to the eastern Kherson region, ended on Sunday after Russia refused the offer of an extension, Ukrainian officials said. The rare pause in fighting, brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump and which began early Tuesday, enabled a humanitarian mission to the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky as the war grinds through its fifth year. Neither side reported violations after the truce began, in what one Ukrainian lawmaker described as the "biggest de-escalation since 2022". "The ceasefire, which was in effect from October 27 to November 1, has ended," said Ukraine's Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets. He called the temporary truce "an important step in our joint humanitarian efforts" with Russia.
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China's factory activity slipped back into contraction territory in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, despite sustained growth in high-tech industries, as the market for consumer goods weakened. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, a closely watched gauge of industrial health, came in at 49.3 this month, below the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction. The fall in manufacturing activity was in part driven by a week-long national holiday at the start of the month, as well as a "complex and volatile international environment", according to NBS statistician Huo Lihui. The figure, from the National Bureau of Statistics, missed the forecast of 49.9 by a Bloomberg survey of economists and was below the 50.1 and 49.8 recorded in September and August respectively.
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According to S&P Global, Chinese manufacturing activity slowed slightly in October. The RatingDog China manufacturing purchasing managers' index edged down to 52.0 points in October from 52.1 points in September. This marks 11 consecutive months of expansion, S&P Global said. Yao Yu, RatingDog founder, said: "Output expanded for the eleventh successive month, and at the sharpest rate since April, on the back of strong client demand and better production capacity, with growth broad-based across all three monitored sub-sectors for the third month running and steepest in investment goods."
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The Fitch ratings agency maintained France's credit rating at A+ but downgraded its outlook from "stable" to "negative" as it raised new concerns over the cost of paying for the country's debt mountain. The US agency predicted that the debt level for the EU's second biggest economy would rise from nearly 115.7% of GDP in 2025 to 124% in 2028. Its last review in August had forecast that France's debt would reach 122.7% of GDP in 2028. "Weaker growth, renewed fiscal deterioration and higher yields have increased the challenge of delivering the necessary sustained fiscal consolidation to arrest France's worsening debt trajectory," it said.
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South Korea will double spending on AI and semiconductors in 2027 to a record high, the president said, pledging to use the technology to turn the military into a "smart, elite force". President Lee Jae Myung in his annual budget speech to parliament said KRW21.3 trillion, or USD16 billion, would be allocated to chipmaking and artificial intelligence, spanning data centres to robotics. "We will make bold investments in AI and future growth engines to boost our economy's growth potential," he said, adding that the figure was "nearly double this year's amount".
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The head of Israel's Central Elections Committee said on Sunday that an ongoing investigation into alleged foreign funding in the country's recent vote would not invalidate its result, noting that so far "suspicions remain suspicions". "We will examine them thoroughly and get to the very bottom of the matter in order to establish the full truth," committee chief Noam Sohlberg said in a video message. Our position is that even if the suspicions are ultimately confirmed, this would not call into question the integrity of the electoral process or the overall results of the elections."
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Australia's manufacturing sector activity contracted in October, figures from S&P Global showed.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index remained flat at 49.6 points in October, falling behind the FXStreet-cited consensus of 49.7 points. This was below the 50.0 point no-change mark, separating expansion from contraction, for the second consecutive month. S&P Global said this is the lowest reading since December 2024, along with last month's figure.
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics said building permits rose in September, beating consensus. The ABS said total dwelling units approved on a seasonally adjusted basis increased 5.1% month-on-month in September to 17,948 units from 16,953 units in August, beating FXStreet-cited consensus of a 2.1% increase. Private sector houses fell 5.3% to 10,432 units from 10,885 units, while private sector dwellings excluding houses were up 17% month-on-month at 6,579 units from 5,674 units. The September fall in private sector house approvals is the largest since August 2025. Despite this drop, it is the ninth consecutive month where more than 10,000 private sector houses have been approved across Australia." commented Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics.
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Irish manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in October, S&P Global reported. The AIB Ireland manufacturing purchasing managers' index edged down to 55.2 points in October from 55.5 points in September. This was the lowest figure for three months, AIB said. David McNamara, AIB chief economist, said: "The AIB Irish Manufacturing PMI indicates that the sector maintained good momentum in October."
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COMPANY CALENDAR
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Apple Inc - full year results
Cisco Systems Inc - half year results
Marriott International Inc - Q3 results
Palantir Technologies Inc - Q3 results
Ryanair Holdings PLC - half year results
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc - Q3 results
Westpac Banking Corp - full year results
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TOP COMPANY NEWS
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President Trump voiced his support for the "brilliant" head of US chip firm Nvidia, Jensen Huang after a report he was targeted by a Chinese spy plot. Trump said the US was looking "very closely" at the issue. The New York Times reported Thursday that US intelligence officials concluded that a Chinese executive linked to a Singapore-based data centre company, who had interacted with Huang, had been funnelling information to Beijing. China has dismissed the report as "groundless speculation." "I have a lot of respect for Jensen. I didn't know about the specific thing, but I hope he's going to be OK. He's a great, brilliant person, and we want to protect our brilliant people," Trump told reporters at his Florida residence.
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Saudi Aramco said it was taking a 49% stake in state-backed AI company Humain, injecting cash and assets as the tech firm tries to scale up to meet rising demand. The Public Investment Fund, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund driving economic diversification efforts, will retain the other 51%, they said in a joint statement. Aramco, the cornerstone of the oil-reliant Saudi economy, has been planning a significant minority stake for at least a year in Humain, which launched in May 2025. "The transaction will further accelerate Humain's growth and advance its full range of AI capabilities globally, with PIF and Aramco contributing AI assets, capabilities, and talent," the statement said.
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Westpac Banking said revenue decreased slightly in financial year 2026, but it upped its payout to shareholders. The Sydney-based lender said statutory net profit attributable to owners was AUD6.81 billion, around USD4.80 billion, for the year ended September 30, down 1.7% from AUD6.93 billion the year prior. The firm noted a AUD109 million expense relating to transaction costs from its sale of its RAMS loan portfolio and related RAMS litigation, during the period. Net interest income for the period was AUD19.58 billion increasing 1.0% from AUD19.38 billion a year ago. Net operating income also increased 1.0% to AUD22.60 billion from AUD22.38 billion on-year. Basic earnings per share was 1.3% lower at 199.3 Australian cents from 201.9 cents previously. Westpac declared a final dividend of 77 Australian cents per share unchanged year-on-year. This brought its total dividend to 154 cents for the full year, 0.7% higher than 153 cents a year ago.
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By Harvey Dorset, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom [at] alliancenews.com
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WEEK AHEAD:
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The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Tuesday 3 November
14:30 AEDT Australia interest rate decision
15:30 AEDT Australia RBA press conference
08:45 CET France budget balance
08:30 CET Switzerland CPI
07:55 EST US Redbook index
09:45 EST US S&P Global manufacturing PMI
10:00 EST US factory orders
Wednesday 4 November
11:30 AEDT Australia household spending
09:00 AEDT Australia Ai group construction index
09:00 AEDT Australia composite PMI
08:30 EST Canada trade balance
09:30 EST Canada composite and services PMI
09:45 CST China composite and services PMI
10:00 CET eurozone composite and services PMI
11:00 CET eurozone CPI
09:50 CET France composite and services PMI
09:55 CET Germany composite and services PMI
01:01 GMT Ireland composite and services PMI
11:00 GMT Ireland unemployment
09:45 CET Italy composite and services PMI
09:15 SAST South Africa PMI
09:00 CET Spain unemployment
09:15 CET Spain composite and services PMI
09:30 GMT UK composite and services PMI
08:15 EST US ADP unemployment
08:30 EST US trade balance
09:00 EST US ISM services PMI
09:30 EST US EIA crude oil stocks
09:45 EST US composite and services PMI
Thursday 5 November
11:30 AEDT Australia trade balance
09:30 CET eurozone construction PMI
11:00 CET eurozone PPI
08:45 CET France industrial production
09:30 CET France construction PMI
08:00 CET Germany factory orders
09:30 CET Germany construction PMI
12:00 CET Germany new car registrations
09:30 CET Italy construction PMI
10:00 CET Italy retail sales
09:30 JST Japan manufacturing PMI
08:50 JST BoJ meeting minutes
09:00 CET Switzerland unemployment
09:00 GMT UK new car sales
09:30 GMT UK construction PMI
12:00 GMT UK BoE monetary policy report
12:00 GMT UK interest rate decision and MPC meeting minutes
08:30 EST US initial jobless claims
10:30 EST US EIA natural gas stocks
Friday 6 November
08:30 EST Canada unemployment
10:00 EST Canada Ivey PMI
11:00 CET eurozone retail sales
08:45 CET France current account and trade balance
08:00 CET Germany industrial production
09:30 JST Japan composite and services PMI
08:00 SAST South Africa foreign exchange reserves
09:00 CET Spain industrial production
09:00 CET Switzerland consumer confidence
08:30 EST US nonfarm payrolls
10:00 EST US Michigan consumer sentiment index
Top company events:
Tuesday 3 November
Advanced Micro Devices Inc - Q3 results
Amgen Inc - Q3 results
Associated British Foods PLC - full year results
Bayer AG - Q3 results
Booking Holdings Inc - Q3 results
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC - trading statement
Deutsche Lufthansa AG - Q3 results
Diamondback Energy Inc - Q3 results
DuPont de Nemours Inc - Q3 results
Evonik Industries AG - Q3 results
Ferrari NV - Q3 results
Fresenius Medical Care AG - Q3 results
Geberit AG - Q3 results
Hiscox Ltd - trading statement
International Workplace Group PLC - Q3 results
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - Q3 results
Pfizer Inc - Q3 results
Royal Philips NV - Q3 results
Saudi Arabian Oil Co - Q3 results
Shopify Inc - Q3 results
Thomson Reuters Corp - Q3 results
TP ICAP Group PLC - trading statement
Weir PLC - dividend payment date
Zalando SE - Q3 results
Wednesday 4 November
Ahold Delhaize NV - Q3 results
Auto1 Group SE - trading statement
Barratt Redrow PLC - trading statement
BMW AG - Q3 results
CDW Corp - Q3 results
Cencora Inc - full year results
Coca-Cola HBC AG - trading statement
Continental AG - Q3 results
Costco Wholesale Corp - trading statement
Datadog Inc - Q3 results
DoorDash Inc - Q3 results
Fast Retailing Co Ltd - trading statement
Fox Corp - AGM
Fraport AG - Q3 results
Frasers Group PLC - Q3 results
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA - Q3 results
GlobalFoundries Inc - Q3 results
Goodman Group Ltd - Q1 results
Heidelberg Materials AG - trading statement
KLA Corp - AGM
Lancashire Holdings Ltd - trading statement
Marks & Spencer Group PLC - half year results
McDonald's Corp - Q3 results
McKesson Corp - half year results
MercadoLibre Inc - Q3 results
Mitsubishi Corp - half year results
Next PLC - trading statement
Novo Nordisk AS - Q3 results
NTT Corp - half year results
Scout24 SE - Q3 results
Siltronic AG - Q3 results
Smith & Nephew PLC - trading statement
Super Micro Computer Inc - Q1 results
Telecom Italia Spa - Q3 results
Tenaris SA - Q3 results
Uber Technologies Inc - Q3 results
United Overseas Bank Ltd - trading statement
Vonovia SE - Q3 results
Weir PLC - Q3 results
Wolters Kluwer NV - trading statement
Thursday 5 November
Airbnb Inc - Q3 results
Air France KLM SA - Q3 results
Allstate Corp - Q3 results
AP Moeller Maersk AS - Q3 results
ArcelorMittal SA - Q3 results
Atlassian Corp - Q1 results
Autotrader Group PLC - half year results
Azimut Holding Spa - Q3 results
Banca Monte Paschi Siena Spa - Q3 results
Banco BPM Spa - Q3 results
Bouygues SA - Q3 results
BT Group PLC - half year results
Buzzi Spa - trading statement
Cellnex Telecom SA - Q3 results
Commerzbank AG - Q3 results
ConocoPhillips - Q3 results
Daikin Industries Ltd - half year results
DBS Group Holdings Ltd - Q3 results
Derwent London PLC - Q3 results
Deutsche Post AG - Q3 results
Deutsche Telekom AG - Q3 results
Diageo PLC - trading statement
Diageo PLC - AGM
Engie SA - Q3 results
Euronext NV - Q3 results
Evotec SE - Q3 results
Fastenal Co - trading statement
FinecoBank Spa - Q3 results
Genmab AS - Q3 results
GN Store Nord AS - Q3 results
Harbour Energy PLC - trading statement
HelloFresh SE - Q3 results
Hensoldt AG - Q3 results
HgCapital Trust PLC - Q3 results
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC - trading statement
Hochtief AG - Q3 results
Howden Joinery Group PLC - trading statement
Iveco Group NV - Q3 results
JD Wetherspoon PLC - trading statement
Kontron AG - Q3 results
Lanxess AG - Q3 results
Legrand SA - Q3 results
Leonardo Spa - Q3 results
M&G PLC - trading statement
Mediobanca Spa - Q3 results
Microchip Technology Inc - half year results
Morgan Sindall Group PLC - trading statement
Monster Beverage Corp - Q3 results
National Australia Bank Ltd - full year results
National Grid PLC - half year results
Nemetschek SE - Q3 results
Nexi Spa - Q3 results
Nintendo Co Ltd - full year results
OSB Group PLC - trading statement
Pirelli & C Spa - Q3 results
Prudential PLC - Q3 results
Rational AG - Q3 results
Renk Group AG - Q3 results
Rheinmetall AG - Q3 results
RS Group PLC - half year results
Siemens Healthineers AG - full year results
Sony Group Corp - half year results
SUSS MicroTec SE - Q3 results
Swiss Re AG - Q3 results
Swisscom AG - Q3 results
Tate & Lyle PLC - half year results
Teleperformance SE - Q3 results
Thomson Reuters Corp - Q3 results
Toyota Motor Corp - half year results
Veolia Environnement SA - Q3 results
Verbund AG - Q3 results
Verisk Analytics Inc - Q3 results
Vistry Group PLC - trading statement
West Japan Railway Co - half year results
Westpac Banking Corp - ex-dividend date
Woodside Energy Group Ltd - capital markets day
Yamaha Corp - half year results
Friday 6 November
Amadeus IT Group SA - Q3 results
Charter Communications Inc - Q3 results
Daimler Truck Holding AG - Q3 results
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA - Q3 results
Krones AG - Q3 results
Macquarie Group Ltd - half year results
Rightmove PLC - trading statement
TBC Bank Group PLC - Q3 results
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp - Q3 results
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
MONDAY: Apple kicks off a new era at its fourth-quarter earnings which will be the first hosted by John Ternus as chief executive, succeeding Tim Cook. In September, Ternus took the reins at his first launch event since taking the helm. This saw the Cupertino, California-based consumer electronics company unveil several new products, including the iPhone 18 Pro, Airpods 5, Apple Watch Series 12 and Duo, the company's first foldable iPhone. In June, Apple announced price rises due to rising computer memory costs, and analysts think this could have benefited the September quarter, as consumers bought ahead of the price hikes. For the fourth quarter, Visible Alpha consensus estimates of iPhone revenue of USD56.2 billion and total sales of USD113.6 billion. Services revenue is seen at USD31.7 billion, and diluted EPS projected to be USD1.99. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee suggests it could be a mixed quarter. He thinks Apple could beat fourth-quarter consensus for revenue and EPS by 4% and 5% respectively, due to strong pulled-forward iPhone sales ahead of the price hikes. But he sees a weaker December quarter, as iPhone 18P/PM demand is weaker than expected as "evidenced by early order cuts, rising memory prices will drive more gross margin pressure, and Duo's demand is only in line with limited upside surprises." The iPhone Duo is Apple's first book-style foldable smartphone. Lee notes Duo shipments started on October 23 but sales seemed to be "at best in line".
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng expects in-line fourth-quarter results, with iPhone revenue growth of 15% on-year, Services revenue growth of 10% on-year, and gross margins of 47.8%. "While memory/component inflation and supply constraints remain near-term headwinds, recent price increases across iPhone, Mac and iPad should increasingly support revenue and partially mitigate cost pressure as Apple realises a fuller pricing benefit into the December quarter," he says. The Goldman analyst thinks the key areas of debate should centre around the sustainability of hardware demand as higher memory/component costs translate into higher device prices, and the sustainability of double-digit-percentage Services growth given slower App Store trends.
TUESDAY: US mid-term elections will give the clearest yet indicator of the popularity of US President Donald Trump, as consumers battle surging energy prices and household costs. The elections, which take place every two years, will see Americans choose members of Congress, which is made up of two parts - the House of Representatives and the Senate. All 435 members of the House - the lower chamber of Congress - will be elected, while 35 of 100 seats in the Senate, the upper chamber, will be up for grabs. Governor contests in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan also will be closely watched. Trump's Republican party currently holds both the House and Senate, albeit with narrow majorities. They have 218 seats in the House, which is the minimum number needed to control it, and 53 seats in the Senate. Morgan Stanley notes the elections often lead to lost seats for the incumbents, so, a Democtratic "blue wave" would "not be a surprise", and is the expected outcome according to both the polls and the betting markets. Berenberg analyst Holger Schmieding points out that as both chambers of Congress must approve changes to the law, a likely Democratic majority in the House would suffice to turn Trump into a "legislative lame duck" for the two remaining years of his final term, "like most recent US presidents have been before him". But he thinks that both parties will lift the debt ceiling when required to avoid protracted government shutdowns. However, it will likely prevent a new fiscal stimulus, in the Berenberg analyst's opinion, which "will damp US GDP growth towards a pace of [around] 1.5% in 2028".
On the outlook for financial markets, Morgan Stanley notes mid-term elections are typically a headwind initially and usually then lead to very strong six to 12 month returns post the event. But MS adds: "The path between here and there is likely a messy one and may linger a few days or weeks after election day with the administration hinting at a potentially more aggressive military stance once the election is over." But the broker adds that "bottom line, the midterms should be a clearing event given the anxiety around the event itself and the possible post-event surprise(s). The historical performance of equity markets post-midterms should provide investors with the extra confidence to step in should a quick downdraft arise."
TUESDAY: Wedbush Securities expects Advanced Micro Devices to report third-quarter results "at or above" guidance, with server CPU demand again being the most probable point of upside. And looking forward, the broker believes any shift to the Santa Clara, California-based chip maker's outlook will be higher with compute and accelerator demand seemingly outrunning supply. For the third quarter, consensus looks for revenue of USD13.08 billion, gross margin of 55.9%, and EPS of USD1.95. For fourth-quarter guidance, consensus eyes revenue of USD16.2 billion and EPS of USD2.65. Investors will look for colour on the prospects for the USD8.2 billion acquisition of artificial intelligence model and research lab, World Labs, announced at the end of September. Aside from the numbers, Wedbush says the market is looking for management to reiterate their prior outlook for Data Center revenues to more than double in 2027 and to provide updates on Helios volumes and progress on Anthropic's planned deployment of up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 Series GPUs. AMD's Helios is a fully integrated, rack-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure system designed to compete directly with Nvidia's platforms such as Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin. While AMD Instinct MI450 series is a line of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing accelerators built on its CDNA 5 architecture.
TUESDAY: The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as it weighs accelerating inflation. At its September meeting, the RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, in line with consensus expectations. The brief statement accompanying that decision retained a tightening bias, noting the Monetary Policy Board would "increase the cash rate further if needed". In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Michelle Bullock noted the focus for future monetary policy decisions was on whether the RBA has "done enough on interest rates to" contain "the inflation numbers another six months out". Since that meeting, comments from RBA officials have added to the likelihood of a further hike, with firmer-than-expected inflation data backing this view. ING notes almost all of the 90 basis points increase in headline CPI inflation of 4.3% on-year in September can be traced to higher transport costs, largely reflecting elevated fuel prices. However, the pass-through has not been confined to transport, ING points out, with both goods and services inflation picking up, suggesting that higher energy costs are feeding more broadly through the economy and adding to underlying inflation pressures. Core inflation, as a result, picked up pace both on an annual and quarterly basis, remaining well above the RBA's target, ING notes. In addition to inflationary pressures, Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Boak points to comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at a recent conference that "we view as clearly hawkish". Hauser said upside inflation risks have materialised since August, and inflation was "materially" higher than what the forecasts implied in August. Meanwhile, at a recent parliamentary testimony, Governor Bullock stated "upside risks to inflation have materialised or are materialising. Inflation will therefore likely be higher than was our base case in August." Reflecting this, Goldman's Boak expects a quarter point rate hike to 4.85% and then expects the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged over most of 2027 "as a weaker growth environment and fading supply shocks gradually bring inflation down." ING agrees. "The data should give the RBA greater confidence that underlying inflation is not yet on a sustained downward path, limiting the case for a pause and strengthening the argument for another rate hike," ING states. Citigroup analyst Josh Williamson also expects a rate increase. "Strong Q3 CPI and hawkish rhetoric from senior officials make a clear majority vote likely, with earlier soft labour data discounted," he says. Williamson believes markets are too confident pricing an end of cycle, with the "door open to further hikes in December or February."
TUESDAY: Analysts generally strike a wary tone ahead of Associated British Foods' full-year results, after lacklustre trading in 2026 so far. In September, the London-based food and ingredients producer which also owns fast-fashion clothing retailer Primark, forecast adjusted operating profit will be in line with prior expectations, but earnings per share "ahead". In July, AB Foods said it expected adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS "to be below last year". In financial 2025, adjusted operating profit amounted to GBP1.73 billion, while adjusted EPS was 174.9 pence. In September's update Primark performance disappointed against consensus, while losses at its sugar business are expected to land towards the higher end of a previous guidance range of GBP25 million to GBP60 million. In April, AB Foods said it will demerge Primark following a strategic review, while in September Primark announced plans for a home delivery service. AJ Bell analysts says the Primark owner will be hoping this decision will boost the fashion chain's subdued performance before its planned spin-off in 2027. But JPMorgan analyst Georgina Johanan says that whilst home delivery might ultimately drive profitable growth, "we are concerned that it could initially be dilutive to store sales densities and margins, causing a net negative impact to the business. On balance we therefore struggle to become more constructive." Analysts at Davy Research say they remain "cautious" ahead of the results. "While Primark's recent price reductions should support its competitive position, we expect the volume response to lag the initial pricing impact - leaving like-for-like growth under pressure against a subdued apparel demand environment." Current trading will be a focus and here, Davy Research looks for Primark to post a LFL revenue decline of around 1% on-year.
WEDNESDAY: Analysts expect few surprises when Barratt Redrow updates on the third quarter, although its comments on the UK government's 'Your First Home' scheme will be of interest. Shares had a strong run ahead of the budget but fell back when details of the scheme were outlined. Concerns about the hit to sales until the scheme is up and running and the overall funding level were seen as reasons for the initial disappointment. On trading, Peel Hunt does not expect to see "massive changes" in terms of the patterns to trading given it is only just over a month since the Barratt Redrow's final results in mid-September. "Activity is likely to have remained challenging, with the step-up in mortgage rates and the announcement of the Your First Home scheme both likely to have hurt recent sales rates," it suggests. Having already cut 2027 and 2028 forecasts by 11% to 13%, "we do not expect to have to do much more at this stage, but it feels that the risks sit on the downside rather than the upside, given the developments around gilt/swap rates recently," Peel Hunt analysts say.
WEDNESDAY: Eurozone inflation is expected have increased in September keeping pressure on the European Central Bank. The Frankfurt-based lender acknowledged the likely upside to inflation when leaving interest rates on hold at its October meeting. "Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook," the ECB said. Goldman Sachs expects euro area headline HICP inflation to increase to 3.9% year-on-year in October from 3.8% in September, although it sees core HICP inflation unmoved at 2.5%. Goldman sees services inflation printing at 3.2% on-year, and core goods inflation moving up to 1.3%. Year-over-year energy inflation will likely edge up to just above 19% on-year in October from just below in September, Goldman estimates.
Barclays also projects headline inflation rising to 3.9% on-year in October, with core inflation unchanged at 2.5% on-year. Barclays expects the pickup to be driven primarily by higher energy inflation, which it sees running at 20.5% on-year. Among non-energy components, Barclays expects food inflation to pick up again, driven by higher unprocessed food prices as the effects of this summer's heatwaves come through. Barclays sees headline inflation peaking at 4.3% on-year next January and still running above target in the fourth quarter of next year. Core inflation is seen peaking at 2.9% on-year next March. Food inflation is set to become a key driver of inflation in 2027, drifting up to 3% from the second quarter onwards, it says.
WEDNESDAY: Investors will be hoping results from Novo Nordisk can revive fortunes at the Danish drugs maker. Shares stand at around a quarter of their lofty highs of 2024 after a series of drug trial setbacks, intensifying market competition in the area of weight loss drugs, and after several trading disappointments. Novo Nordisk's most famous drug is semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist sold under the brand names Ozempic and Rybelsus for type 2 diabetes, and Wegovy for chronic weight management. Fierce competition has come from the likes of Eli Lilly with products like Zepbound and Mounjaro. For the recent quarter, company-compiled consensus looks for reported group sales of DKK73.22 billion, including Diabetes sales of DKK43.51 billion and Obesity sales of DKK24.94 billion. Adjusted operating profit is projected of DKK28.39 billion with adjusted diluted EPS of DKK5.10. Within Obesity, consensus estimates Wegovy sales of DKK19.94 billion and within Diabetes looks for Ozempic sales of DKK26.55 billion. Analysts say the focus of the results will be the strength of Wegovy pill UK launch and cadence of further international launches in 27; the moving parts for 2027, including Wegovy price and volume, CagriSema launch expectations; and the impact of the US FDA extending its review of hemophilia A drug denecimig (MIM8, brand name Frehemgo in Europe) which has pushed the expected US launch to the first half of 2027.
WEDNESDAY: Investors will be hoping it's a case of 'no news is good news' at Marks & Spencer. The clothing and food retailer hasn't updated the market on trading since full-year results in May. But the FTSE 100-listing will be providing two updates in the space of six days with half-year results followed by a capital markets event on November 10. JPMorgan analyst Georgina Johanan notes that since May there has been much speculation on the performance of the Fashion, Home & Beauty business in the intervening period. She points to data showing clothing sales drifting back into negative territory on a year-on-year basis which she views as "disappointing", but now "well digested". Similarly well understood is the apparent strength in Food sales, Johanan says, which data suggests has been growing at a more than double-digit percentage compared to the year prior. Johanan forecasts first half pretax profit of GBP395 million. At the upcoming CMD, the JPM analyst expects the FH&B "margin opportunity" to be in focus - including around supply chain, and opportunities to drive the online margin higher, particularly given the recent acquisition of the Lichfield distribution centre. Bank of America thinks the results will be particularly important as they should represent the first near-normal trading period since last year's cyber incident, which heavily disrupted store operations, supply chains and online trading, particularly within Fashion, Home & Beauty. BofA expects a strong set of results overall, and forecast first half revenue growth of around 13% year-on-year and adjusted pretax profit of GBP396 million, more than doubling from the prior year's cyber-affected base. "However, the two divisions are moving at different speeds and we believe investor attention will increasingly focus on the sustainability of the [Fashion, Home & Beauty] recovery rather than Food, where execution remains consistently strong," BofA says.
THURSDAY: Following on from Marks & Spencer, another UK retail bellwether Next will provide a third-quarter trading statement. The update will cover the 13 weeks to the end of October. At its first-half results in September, Next raised FY27 pretax profit guidance by GBP12 million to GBP1.26 billion based on full-price sales growth of 6.7%. The Leicester-based firm assumes second-half full-price sales growth of 5.8%, with the UK up 2.0% and international up 21%. Peel Hunt says: "With guidance only just raised and Q3 coming ahead of peak, we do not expect material forecast changes, particularly given the warm autumn weather, which we expect to be unhelpful for seasonal product." AJ Bell thinks the lower second-half full-price sales guidance creates the "perfect set up" for Next to "beat conservative guidance again." But AJ Bell comments: "The problem with success is that investors keep raising the bar and with the shares trading close to all-time highs amid an enviable track record of profit upgrades, there is no room for disappointment."
THURSDAY: The Bank of England looks set to raise interest rates for the first time in just over three years as it aims to tame inflation, which is being driven higher by soaring energy costs. In September, annual consumer price inflation picked up to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, the highest rate since October last year. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, was estimated at 2.8% year-on-year in September, up from 2.6% in August. At the time, Cathal Kennedy, senior UK economist, at RBC Capital Markets said the CPI rise "removes any final obstacles" to a November BoE hike. "Not only is inflation ahead of projections, but it is also set to rise further as the 4% increase in domestic utility bills on October 1 are reflected in next month's data," the economist said. UBS economist Anna Titareva agrees and expects the Monetary Policy Committee to hike bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, in line with market expectations. This would be the first interest rate increase since August 2023 when interest rates hit 5.2%. Titareva expects the vote split to flip from 7-2 in favour of a hold in September to 7-2 in favour of a hike, with Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor likely voting to keep rates on hold. The risk, is skewed towards an 8-1 vote, with Dhingra potentially also voting for a hike, the UBS analyst says. "At its September meeting, the BoE left bank rate unchanged but sent a clear hawkish signal, which we interpreted as pointing to policy tightening in the absence of a substantial decline in energy prices. Since then, activity and labour market data have signalled resilience, while inflation has surprised to the upside," Titareva points out. She expects updated macro projections and scenarios to show upward revisions to both inflation and growth and against this backdrop, expects the majority of the MPC to judge that a quarter point hike is "appropriate in light of a more persistent energy shock".
Citigroup analyst May Rostom also looks for a 7-2 vote to back a quarter point rate increase and continues to expect a second hike next February. "The inflation outlook is now starting to worry the Bank of England," she writes ahead of the decision. Rostom says the BoE is "acutely conscious" that the UK's recent inflation record is "one of the worst" in developed markets and she thinks these conditions will "tip" the majority on the MPC into voting for a hike at their November meeting. However, she thinks it will be a reluctant hike. "This is still an MPC that really does not want to hike, the more dovish members of the committee are concerned about the amount of slack in the labour market and they will not want to reverse the recent (and much needed) progress made on economic growth," she adds.
Deutsche Bank Research expects a 6-3 vote split with BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breedon joining Taylor on Dhingra opting for the status quo. Deutsche notes energy prices have moved towards the BoE's "adverse scenario" in the near term, activity has been stronger than in every vintage of the Bank's forecast this year, and labour market slack has stopped widening. "The case for pre-emptive hikes has grown as risk management concerns have started to outweigh the case to wait," it adds.
FRIDAY: While the Federal Reserve is currently more focused on the inflation element of its dual mandate, nonfarm payrolls data will still play an important role in its thinking. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh described the labour side of the dual mandate as "quite positive" at the press conference after the US central bank left interest rates on hold. While the statement accompanying the October decision noted job gains have "kept pace" with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. This view chimes with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book which characterised the labour market as "stable", with most of its 12 districts describing little or no net change in overall employment levels. In September, nonfarm payroll employment grew by just 29,000 after a 133,000 increase in August. Barclays analyst Marc Giannoni forecasts a 50,000 gain in October which would take the three-month average to 71,000, barring any revisions. Giannoni notes this would be stronger than the 28,000 per month pace in the three months ending in July. He expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1% from 4.2%, reversing September's rise. The US jobs report comes at the end of a busy week of data on the labour market. On Tuesday, the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled. Giannoni thinks job openings rose slightly, to 7.200 million in September from 7.079 million in August. "This comes amid signs from Indeed.com and other sources that the current level of Jolts overstates labour demand," he adds.
Week Ahead by Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
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