3. Aug 2026
Description
(AWP Alliance News) - European equities are called to open higher and oil prices retreat after US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran will begin Monday following his decision to pause planned strikes.
Here is what you need to know before the European market open on Monday:
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MARKETS
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CAC 40: called up 64.1 points, 0.8%, at 8,573.74
DAX 40: called up 266.4 points, 1.0%, at 25,895.64
FTSE 100: called up 36.3 points, 0.3%, at 10,904.35
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Hang Seng: up marginally at 25,895.44
Nikkei 225: down 1.1% at 63,657.08
S&P/ASX 200: down marginally at 8,974.60
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DJIA: closed up 276.97 points, 0.5% at 52,485.03
S&P 500: closed up 52.09 points, 0.7%, to 7,489.72
Nasdaq Composite: closed up 251.68 points, 1.0%, at 25,373.85
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US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.70% (4.74%)
US 30-year Treasury yield: 5.24% (5.27%)
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EUR: higher at USD1.1533 (USD1.1503)
GBP: higher at USD1.3468 (USD1.3463)
USD: lower at JPY156.50 (JPY159.31)
GOLD: higher at USD4,069.82 per ounce (USD4,041.68)
OIL (Brent): lower at USD83.47 a barrel (USD90.12)
(changes since previous London equities close)
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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Canada Civic Holiday. Financial markets closed.
10:00 CEST eurozone manufacturing PMI
09:50 CEST France manufacturing PMI
08:00 CEST Germany retail sales
09:55 CEST Germany manufacturing PMI
09:45 CEST Italy manufacturing PMI
11:00 SAST South Africa manufacturing PMI
09:15 CEST Spain manufacturing PMI
08:30 CEST Switzerland CPI
09:30 CEST Switzerland manufacturing PMI
09:30 BST UK manufacturing PMI
09:45 EDT US manufacturing PMI
10:00 EDT US ISM manufacturing PMI
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TOP ECONOMIC NEWS
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US President Donald Trump said that new negotiations with Iran will begin Monday after he decided to hold off on striking the Islamic republic to pursue a deal to end the war entering its sixth month. Trump said he had been asked by Iran as well as US partners Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to hold off on the strikes, which he claimed would have been "the biggest attack since World War II." Trump told reporters that the talks would cover the Strait of Hormuz, a route for global energy supplies that has become a key sticking point in the conflict, and ultimately, the denuclearisation of Iran. For its part, Iran said it was nearing a deal with Oman over a new route through the strait, where a tanker reported an explosion nearby on Sunday, underscoring the continued volatility of the strategic waterway.
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Trump confirmed that the US had intervened jointly with Japan to support the yen, calling the move a "signal of friendship" that would financially benefit the US and world economy. The Financial Times reported on Friday that the US Treasury had jointly intervened with Japan to prop up the yen for the first time in nearly three decades. Asked aboard Air Force One why the US was moving to support Japan's currency, Trump said: "Because we have a good relationship with Japan." The US will see "financial benefit" from the move and "it's also good for the world economy," Trump insisted, but "it was really more than anything else, it was a signal of friendship." The Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had taken the unusual step of selling euros to buy yen on behalf of the US Treasury on Friday.
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All three US Federal Reserve policymakers who dissented from the central bank's decision to keep interest rates steady that hikes were needed now in order to avoid entrenched inflation. "Inflation has been too high for too long," said one of the dissenters, president of the regional Cleveland Fed, Beth Hammack. "The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down." Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, said he thought it was necessary to "tighten policy incrementally as we gather more data on the path of inflation and employment." Lorie Logan, the third dissenting vote and president of the Dallas Fed, also issued a statement on Friday, agreeing with the need for "modest action" now to reduce the need for potentially sharper hikes later.
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China conducted military and coast guard drills near the Scarborough Shoal, a contested reef in the South China Sea, in a show of force after recent clashes with the Philippines in the disputed waters. The Philippines and China contest each other's sovereignty over the coral shoal, which is rich in fishing resources and controlled by Beijing. China conducted "a joint naval-air training exercise" near the reef on Saturday, a spokesperson from the army's Southern Theater Command said.
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China's manufacturing sector growth slowed in July even as new orders and export demand continued to rise, S&P Global reported. The RatingDog China manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 50.9 points in July from 51.7 in June, missing the FXStreet-cited consensus forecast of 51.5 points. A reading above the 50.0-point neutral mark indicates an overall increase in month-on-month business activity, while a reading below signals a contraction.
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Japan's manufacturing activity slowed slightly in July but still showed a "further marked improvement in the health of the sector", S&P Global reported. The Japan manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 points in July from 54.8 in June, slightly below the 54.7 points flash reading.
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France's Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said his country would not seek Spain's suspension from Schengen rules, after tens of thousands of migrants entered Spain's enclave of Ceuta in North Africa. "Spain does not need to leave the Schengen zone. It's absolutely not on the table. We have great cooperation with Spain," he told reporters. His comments came a day after Italy announced that it had suspended for a month its Schengen deal with Spain allowing for visa-free movement between borders.
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UK Chancellor John Healey has told the Cabinet they must make be prepared to make cuts to finance Andy Burnham's new spending pledges. Healey announced the date of his first budget as chancellor as October 28, and promised the plans would be "built on fiscal discipline". The start of Burnham's premiership has seen a succession of announcements likely to require additional spending. These include cost-of-living measures such as a cut in VAT on energy bills and reduced business rates for pubs, along with plans for radical devolution in England and an expansion of technical training in schools.
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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other key members of Opec+ agreed in an online meeting to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Middle East war. "The seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day," they said in a joint statement. The increase was widely expected by analysts.
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Australian manufacturers reported a rise in output and new orders in July despite persistent inflationary pressures and supply constraints, S&P Global reported. The S&P Global Australia manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0 points in July from 51.5 points in June, surpassing the flash reading of 51.7 points.
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COMPANY CALENDAR
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AT&T Inc - dividend payment date
Clarkson PLC - finanical results
ING Group NV - ex-dividend date
Itochu Corp - Q1 results
Mitsubishi Corp - Q1 results
Mitsubishi Motors Corp - Q1 results
Mitsui Chemicals Inc - Q1 results
Next PLC - dividend payment date
ON Semiconductor Corp - half year results
Palantir Technologies Inc - half year results
Shionogi & Co Ltd - Q1 results
Snap Inc - half year results
Tyson Foods Inc - Q3 results
United Utilities Group PLC - dividend payment date
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc - half year results
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TOP COMPANY NEWS
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UniCredit announced a long-term strategic collaboration with Accenture and IBM to build the technology foundation supporting the bank's growth across its 13 European markets. The three companies will design a new operating model for banking technology, aimed at giving Milan-based bank UniCredit greater control over its systems while combining the resilience of mission-critical infrastructure with the flexibility of modern digital platforms. The programme is intended to enable continuous innovation and faster deployment of new digital capabilities.
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Banco BPM said it has ended merger talks with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. Milan-based Banco BPM originally proposed the merger discussion in June, highlighting the potential EUR1.1 billion annual pre-tax synergies, according to Reuters. Banco BPM noted that "the conditions for reaching an agreement shared by the parties have not been met to date," while maintaining the "strong potential strategic and industrial rationale" of the merger in principle. BMPS, the Siena, Italy-based bank, is separately considering a EUR30.6 billion unsolicited takeover bid by Intesa Sanpaolo.
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Westpac completed the sale of its RAMS mortgage portfolio to a consortium that includes Pepper Money, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, and Pacific Investment Management. The Sydney-based lender said the portfolio was worth AUD15.4 billion at completion, or around USD10.85 billion. Westpac said the transaction strengthens its balance sheet and reduces operational complexity. As a result of the transaction now being complete, the bank's common equity tier one ratio has increased by 23 basis points.
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Holcim signed an agreement with Wuhan, China-based Huaxin Building Materials for the divestment of its business in the Philippines. The overall transaction valuation is USD807 million. The Zug, Switzerland-based building materials company will sell an approximately 68% stake for USD527 million and the deal also outlines plans for Holcim to exit its remaining interest of around 31% within a three to five year timeframe, with a minimum floor price of USD280 million.
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Transurban reported stronger June traffic growth across all markets, reflecting improved network conditions and easing construction impacts. The Melbourne, Australia-based toll-road operator said group average daily traffic growth in June rose 3.8% year-on-year, compared to 0.1% growth in May. Sydney traffic increased 2.5% which reflects the easing of construction-related impacts associated with the M7-M12 Integration project. Melbourne is up 6.1% driven by the contribution of the West Gate Tunnel project. Excluding WGT, Melbourne traffic rose 1.5%. Brisbane traffic grew 1.7% while North America climbed 6.9%. Excluding the WGT, group ADT increased 2.4%
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Carrefour completed the sale of its 32% minority stake in its Turkish unit to Yeni Magazacilik, the Istanbul-based operator of the A101 discount retail chain. The Paris-based retail and wholesale company said the transaction also includes the 57% stake held by Sabanci. Yeni Magazacilik is part of Aydin Group which is a diversified Turkish conglomerate active in retail, healthcare and manufacturing. Carrefour said the deal has no material financial impact on the group.
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By Judy Amaca, Alliance News reporter Asia-Pacific
Comments and questions to newsroom [at] alliancenews.com
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WEEK AHEAD:
The following is a look ahead at the most important economic and corporate events globally in the days ahead.
Top economic events:
Tuesday 4 August
11:30 AEST Australia household spending
08:30 EDT Canada trade balance
09:30 EDT Canada manufacturing PMI
08:45 CEST France budget balance
01:01 IST Ireland AIB manufacturing PMI
10:00 CEST Italy retail sales
09:00 CEST Spain unemployment
08:30 EDT US trade balance
08:55 EDT US Redbook index
10:00 EDT US job openings and labour turnover survey
10:00 EDT US factory orders
Wednesday 5 August
09:00 AEST Australia Ai group manufacturing and construction indices
09:00 AEST Australia composite PMI
09:45 CST China composite PMI
10:00 CEST eurozone composite PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone PPI
08:45 CEST France industrial production
09:50 CEST France composite PMI
09:55 CEST Germany composite PMI
08:50 JST Bank of Japan meeting minutes
09:30 JST Japan composite PMI
09:15 SAST South Africa S&P Global PMI
09:15 CEST Spain composite PMI
09:30 BST UK composite PMI
08:15 EDT US ADP unemployment
09:45 EDT US composite PMI
10:00 EDT US ISM services PMI
10:30 EDT US EIA crude oil stocks
Thursday 6 August
11:30 AEST Australia trade balance
11:30 AEST Australia building permits and private house approvals
09:30 EDT Canada composite PMI
09:30 CEST eurozone construction PMI
11:00 CEST eurozone retail sales
09:30 CEST France construction PMI
08:00 CEST Germany factory orders
09:30 CEST Germany construction PMI
01:01 IST Ireland services PMI
11:00 IST Ireland unemployment
09:30 CEST Italy construction PMI
10:00 CEST Italy industrial production
09:00 CEST Spain industrial production
09:00 CEST Switzerland unemployment
09:30 BST UK construction PMI
08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims
10:00 EDT US wholesale inventories
10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks
Friday 7 August
08:30 EDT Canada unemployment and average hourly wages
10:00 EDT Canada Ivey PMI
11:00 CST China trade balance
07:30 CEST France unemployment
08:45 CEST France trade balance and current account
08:45 CEST France foreign exchange reserves
08:00 CEST Germany trade balance
08:00 CEST Germany industrial production
08:00 SAST South Africa foreign exchange reserves
09:00 CEST Switzerland consumer confidence
09:00 CEST Switzerland foreign exchange reserves
08:30 EDT US nonfarm payrolls and average weekly hours
11:00 EDT US consumer inflation expectations
Top corporate events:
Tuesday 4 August
Advanced Micro Devices Inc - half year results
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc - half year results
Amgen Inc - half year results
Bayer AG - half year results
Booking Holdings Inc - half year results
BP PLC - half year results
BPER Banca Spa - half year results
Buzzi Spa - half year results
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC - half year results
Continental AG - half year results
Deutsche Lufthansa AG - half year results
Diamondback Energy Inc - half year results
Domino's Pizza Group PLC - half year results
Duke Energy Corp - half year results
DuPont de Nemours Inc - half year results
Elmos Semiconductor SE - half year results
Evonik Industries AG - half year results
Fast Retailing Co Ltd - july sales data
Fidelity National Information Services Inc - half year results
Fresenius Medical Care AG - half year results
Gilead Sciences Inc - half year results
HSBC Holdings PLC - half year results
Hugo Boss AG - half year results
IDEXX Laboratories Inc - half year results
Keller Group PLC - half year results
LEG Immobilien SE - half year results
McDonald's Corp - half year results
Merck & Co Inc - half year results
NRG Energy Inc - half year results
Oneok Inc - half year results
Pfizer Inc - half year results
Rotork PLC - Q1 results
Saudi Arabian Oil Co - half year results
Smith & Nephew PLC - half year results
Space Exploration Technologies Corp - half year results
Travis Perkins PLC - half year results
Zalando SE - half year results
Wednesday 5 August
4imprint Group PLC - half year results
Ahold Delhaize NV - half year results
AppLovin Corp - half year results
Axon Enterprise Inc - half year results
Banco BPM Spa - half year results
Beazley PLC - half year results
Beiersdorf AG - half year results
CDW Corp - half year results
Cencora Inc - Q3 results
Coca-Cola HBC AG - half year results
Corpay Inc - half year results
Costco Wholesale Corp - monthly sales
CVS Health Corp - half year results
Deutsche Post AG - half year results
DoorDash Inc - half year results
Eli Lilly & Co - half year results
EOG Resources Inc - half year results
Fidelity National Financial Inc - half year results
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA - half year results
Glencore PLC - half year results
Global Payments Inc - half year results
Heineken Holding NV - half year results
Hiscox Ltd - half year results
Honda Motor Co Ltd - Q1 results
Ibstock PLC - half year results
Infineon Technologies AG - Q3 results
Insulet Corp - half year results
Kao Corp - half year results
Kraft Heinz Co - half year results
Legal & General Group PLC - half year results
Lowe's Cos Inc - dividend payment date
McKesson Corp - Q1 results
MercadoLibre Inc - half year results
News Corp - full year results
Next PLC - trading statement
Novo Nordisk AS - half year results
Ocean Wilsons Holdings Ltd - AGM
Qiagen NV - half year results
Shiseido Co Ltd - half year results
Shopify Inc - half year results
Siemens Energy AG - Q3 results
Telecom Italia Spa - half year results
Tenaris SA - half year results
Uber Technologies Inc - half year results
Vistry Group PLC - half year results
Vonovia SE - half year results
Walt Disney Co - Q3 results
West Pharmaceutical Services Inc - dividend payment date
Wolters Kluwer NV - half year results
Thursday 6 August
Adecco Group AG - half year results
Admiral Group PLC - half year results
Aflac Inc - half year results
Akamai Technologies Inc - half year results
Allstate Corp - half year results
AP Moeller Maersk AS - half year results
Atlassian Corp - full year results
Atmos Energy Corp - Q3 results
Aurubis AG - Q3 results
Banca Monte Paschi Siena Spa - half year results
Caledonia Investments PLC - dividend payment date
Carl Zeiss Meditec AG - Q3 results
CF Industries Holdings Inc - half year results
Cloudflare Inc - half year results
CLP Holdings Ltd - half year results
Commerzbank AG - half year results
ConocoPhillips - half year results
Constellation Energy Corp - half year results
Datadog Inc - half year results
DBS Group Holdings Ltd - half year results
Derwent London PLC - half year results
Deutsche Telekom AG - half year results
Diageo PLC - preliminary results
Etsy Inc - half year results
Fastenal Co - july 2026 sales
Fila Holdings Corp - half year results
Fox Corp - full year results
Fraport AG - half year results
Fujifilm Holdings Corp - Q1 results
Genmab AS - half year results
Harbour Energy PLC - half year results
Henkel AG & Co KGaA - half year results
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC - half year results
Interpump Group Spa - half year results
Ionos Group SE - half year results
Kenvue Inc - half year results
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc - half year results
Kontron AG - half year results
Liberty Broadband Corp - half year results
Lyft Inc - half year results
Mediobanca Spa - half year results
Merck KGaA - half year results
Metlife Inc - half year results
Morgan Advanced Materials PLC -half year results
Nokia Corp - dividend payment date
Nutrien Ltd - half year results
Occidental Petroleum Corp - half year results
OSB Group PLC - half year results
PageGroup PLC - half year results
Persimmon PLC - half year results
Quilter PLC - half year results
Ralph Lauren Corp - Q1 results
Rational AG - half year results
Relx PLC - ex-dividend date
Renk Group AG - half year results
Restaurant Brands International Inc - half year results
Rheinmetall AG - half year results
Safestore Holdings PLC - dividend payment date
Scout24 SE - half year results
Sempra Energy - half year results
Serco Group PLC - half year results
Singapore Exchange Ltd - half year results
SoftBank Group Corp - Q1 results
St James's Place PLC - ex-dividend date
Sumco Corp - half year results
Sumitomo Realty & Development Co Ltd - Q1 results
Sun Life Financial Inc - half year results
SUSS MicroTec SE - half year results
Swiss Re AG - half year results
Swisscom AG - half year results
TBC Bank Group PLC - half year results
TP ICAP Group PLC - half year results
Tritax Big Box REIT PLC - half year results
United Internet AG - half year results
Viatris Inc - half year results
Warner Bros Discovery Inc - half year results
Wizz Air Holdings PLC - Q1 results
Zurich Insurance Group AG - half year results
Friday 7 August
Allianz SE - half year results
Assicurazioni Generali Spa Italy - half year results
Bridgestone Corp - half year results
Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc - Q1 results
Daimler Truck Holding AG - half year results
Lanxess AG - half year results
Munich Re AG - half year results
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp - half year results
Here's what to watch for as the week unfolds.
TUESDAY: After the fanfare surrounding rocket maker SpaceX's highly anticipated initial public offer, shares have fallen back to earth with a bump. The firm, which owns the Starlink satellite internet system and social media platform X, made its stock market debut in June at USD135 per share. The stock traded then rocketed as high as USD225.64, but currently sits at around half that level, about USD20 below the IPO price. S&P Global analyst Melissa Otto says the weakness has been partially driven by concerns about AI and data centres. "There is increasing concern in the market that AI infrastructure investments will not be able to generate a return in line with the level of cash needed," she adds. Visible Alpha consensus expects revenue of USD6.86 billion, an operating loss of USD1.62 billion and diluted losses per share of USD0.19. Second quarter Connectivity margin is expected at 35.9%, offsetting operating losses in the Space and AI segments. Attention will be on the outlook and capital expenditure, with the latter forecast to increase to USD118.4 billion in 2028 from USD48.7 billion this year. Analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown think investors should expect a "bumpy set" of financials for some time, as SpaceX spends heavily and analysts get to grips with its unusually broad mix of rockets, satellite internet and AI. "We expect revenue growth to accelerate as major deals to rent computing power begin feeding into the numbers. These contracts could be crucial sources of cash over the short to medium term, so aside from details on future Starship launches, we'll be just as interested in hearing when AI capacity will come online, when revenue will be recognised, and how much investment will be needed to deliver it."
TUESDAY: Advanced Micro Devices has made some bullish noises heading into second quarter earnings which investors will hope are reflected in the print. At its 'advancing AI' event in July, Chief Executive Lisa Su introduced a raft of artificial intelligence products, led by its Helios AI racks and Venice CPUs. The chip maker believes Helios to be the industry's highest-performance AI rack, citing low to mid teen performance advantages versus Nvidia's Vera Rubin. In addition, AMD now sizes the AI accelerator market at USD1.4 trillion by 2030, up from prior estimates of USD1 trillion, and expects the server CPU total addressable market to grow to USD220 billion, up from its forecast of USD120 million in March. Analysts at Wedbush Securities say AMD now frames itself as an end-to-end compute franchise spanning GPU, CPU, networking, software, and increasingly client and physical AI. For the second quarter, consensus looks for sales and EPS of USD11.27 billion and USD1.60, respectively, and third quarter guidance of USD12.5 billion for revenue and USD1.87 for EPS, although some analysts think the sales guide could be as high as USD14 billion. Analysts think the focus will be on Helios and the GPU ramp; server CPU demand and market share, memory and wafer supply; second half PC outlook; and gross margin impact on GPU mix.
TUESDAY: The tough macroeconomic environment is expected to offset tailwinds from the football World Cup when fast food restaurant chain McDonald's reports second-quarter results. RBC Capital Markets expects the Chicago-based company to report US same store sales growth of 1.0% in the quarter, largely in-line with consensus of 0.8% growth. "We think the lower-income consumer continued to be pressured through the quarter, as gas prices remained elevated," RBC says. Analysts think the key factors to watch are: how much the World Cup drove sales; how the under USD3 'everyday affordable price' menu performed through the quarter; and how the new drinks line-up is performing. For the quarter, Visible Alpha consensus expects revenue of USD7.14 billion and adjusted EPS of USD3.40, with USD7.42 billion and USD3.54 for third quarter guidance.
TUESDAY: It's all go at BP despite new Chief Executive Meg O'Neill recently playing down the prospect of a "big splash" strategic move this year. Ahead of second quarter results, the London-based oil major said it is putting its North Sea business up for sale after 60 years of production. O'Neill recently told analysts that, while the UK has growth potential, it is not currently profitable. O'Neill, who joined BP in April from Woodside Energy, has pledged more discipline in future investments, with press reports suggesting the FTSE 100 listing is in advanced talks to sell its solar energy subsidiary, Lightsource as it continues to reverse its prior green energy push. O'Neill has said BP's balance sheet has "too much stuff in it", with the company targeting net debt of USD14 billion to USD18 billion by the end 2027. As part of the drive to lower debt, BP suspended share buybacks alongside fourth quarter results, back in February. For its second quarter, company compiled consensus looks for underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax of USD9.48 billion and an underlying replacement cost result of USD5.11 billion. In a pre-results teaser, BP said higher oil and gas prices are expected to benefit the gas & low carbon energy segment to the tune of USD500 million to USD700 million compared to the prior quarter. But it expects to take a USD1 billion impairment charge in that segment in the quarter and expects production to fall partly due to the Middle East conflict.
TUESDAY: The focus at HSBC's second-quarter numbers will be on whether share buybacks are resumed, changes to full-year guidance, and the impact, if any, of China regulatory changes. The Asia-focused lender, the most valuable London-listed company, is likely to have benefited from rising Hong Kong interbank offered rates and resilient wealth management revenue, which analysts think could see full-year net interest income guidance raised. JPMorgan suggests NII outlook could increase to USD47 billion from USD46 billion for 2026. A strong print would provide reassurance regarding Hong Kong deposit growth in light of new China outbound direct investment regulation which sparked concerns of a slowdown in Hong Kong deposit/wealth growth. The lender is also expected to restart share buybacks which were put on hold last October following its announcement of a buyout of minority investors in Hang Seng Bank in Hong Kong. Consensus looks for a USD2 billion quarterly buyback, although Citigroup thinks it could be as high as USD3 billion. Visible Alpha consensus looks for second quarter adjusted pretax profit of USD9.92 billion, operating income of USD18.65 billion, banking NII of USD11.49 billion, and a dividend per share of 9.0 US cents.
WEDNESDAY: Shares in Legal & General have been a warm order since a report in the Financial Times in May suggested several insurers and alternative asset managers were circling the FTSE 100-listed insurer. L&G Chief Executive Antonio Simoes told the FT that he was not considering a break-up or sale and was "100% focused on executing my strategy." But one current L&G insider told the FT at the time that "it feels like we're being dressed up for a sale". Shares have risen 14% year-to-date and are around 21% higher than April's low. Elsewhere, attention will focus on the second-half pension risk transfer pipeline, with L&G one of the most acutely exposed insurers to annuity market headwinds. PRT demand remains robust among UK corporate defined-benefit schemes unloading liabilities, though competition remains intense. For the first half of 2026, JPMorgan forecasts for L&G core operating profit of GBP911 million, up 6.1% on-year, core operating EPS of 11.9p, up 9.2% on-year, and a dividend per share of 6.24p, up 2.0% on-year.
WEDNESDAY: Analysts at Shore Capital think the "stage is set" for another profit upgrade when Next updates on trading. The Leicester-based clothing and homewares retailer has made a habit of under-promising and over-delivering, giving 19 profit guidance upgrades since the start of financial 2024. The success is reflected in the share price which has risen 24% in the past 12 months, leaving it "priced for perfection", according to Shore Capital analyst David Hughes. The analyst notes warmer weather has seen a step up in performance in UK apparel retail in May and June, as reported by both the UK Office for National Statistics and the British Retail Consortium. Hughes says one issue may be an earlier start to discounting due to the later start to the warmer weather and the possible impact on margin. But with recent positive secondary data on the UK apparel market, he senses the stage is set for an upgrade. Next currently forecasts financial 2027 pretax profit of GBP1.22 billion.
WEDNESDAY: Eli Lilly is expected to report strong second-quarter results based on the continued ramp of weight-loss drug Mounjaro internationally and healthy growth in the US obesity market. Indianapolis, Indiana-based Eli Lilly is the world's most valuable listed pharmaceuticals firm with a market value of around USD1.14 trillion and with much of its recent success due to the burgeoning demand for weight loss treatments. For the recent quarter, Visible Alpha consensus looks for sales of USD20.4 billion and EPS of USD8.72. For Mounjaro, which analysts at Goldman Sachs say has been the "engine driving the upside over the past few quarters", VA consensus looks for sales of USD4.5 billion, with Goldman itself pencilling in a more bullish USD4.95 billion. At the time of its first-quarter results in April, Eli Lilly raised full-year revenue guidance to between USD82 billion and USD85 billion from USD80 billion to USD83 billion before, and analysts suggest another hike could be on the cards. JPMorgan says it would "not be surprised" to see Lilly again raise its targets and sees Mounjaro international as a continued source of upside to consensus/guidance. Goldman, which sees scope for a raise of up to USD1 billion to sales guidance, says the magnitude of the raise will likely be the most important variable that will determine the stock's print-day reaction.
WEDNESDAY: The key debate heading into Eli Lilly rival Novo Nordisk's second-quarter earnings also is whether the pharmaceuticals maker will raise guidance, and if so, by how much. The Danish firm is famous for its weight loss and diabetes drugs such as Wegovy and Ozempic. But it has seen its share price crumble, losing its crown as the most valuable company in Europe, after a string of warnings, disappointing drug updates and increasing competition from the likes of Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro. But following continued solid demand for Wegovy pill in the US, and delays to generic semaglutide entry in certain ex-US markets, analysts believe an improvement in full-year guidance is widely expected by the market. UBS expects that Novo Nordkisk will take a gradual approach to guidance changes, especially given the profit warning disappointments of recent years and a number of unknowns in the second half. "As we understand Danish listing rules, Novo will be required to pre-announce if the mid-point of the new range is outside the old range. We do not expect this as a base case," the broker says. Bloomberg consensus looks for second quarter sales of DKK71.6 billion, adjusted operating profit of DKK29.0 billion, and adjusted EPS of DKK5.56. JPMorgan anticipates a solid set of results, with a strong beat for oral Wegovy. JPM thinks guidance for full-year adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit will be raised to a decline of between 3% to 9% from a decline of 4% to 12% previously.
WEDNESDAY: Disney second-quarter earnings are likely to supported by growth in Experiences and streaming services such as Disney+ helping to offset higher sports rights costs and a mixed box-office performance. For the quarter, analysts expect the Burbank, California-based media and entertainment conglomerate to report segment operating income of USD5.23 billion and adjusted EPS of USD1.85, with fourth-quarter guidance of USD5.02 billion and USD1.76, respectively. Sales are seen at around USD25.43 billion, according to UBS, which predicts Experiences sales up 8.7% on-year, Entertainment also up 8.7% and Sports up 4.7%. Box office contributions have been mixed with 'Toy Story 5' doing well, but' Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu', and 'Moana' proving underwhelming. Citigroup thinks guidance will be a key factor for investors, noting some unease that it may be at risk. Elsewhere, the focus will be on US attendance trends, capex, and whether streaming needs more investment on content to improve engagement.
THURSDAY: Investors will be watching to see if Airbnb got a boost from the football World Cup, when it reports second-quarter results. In May, the San Francisco-based vacation rental platform raised annual revenue guidance and forecast the football fiesta would become the biggest event in Airbnb's history. Chief Financial Officer Ellie Mertz noted Airbnb had attracted an incremental 100,000 listings in advance of the tournament. Airbnb also has been scaling up its boutique and independent hotel pilot, and feedback on this and other innovations will be watched. Visible Alpha consensus looks for second-quarter revenue of USD3.58 billion, up 16% on-year, net income of USD763.8 million, up 19% on-year, and GAAP diluted EPS of USD1.26, up 23% on-year. As always, gross bookings value and nights & experiences booked will be closely watched metrics. Here, VA consensus looks for gross bookings value up 13% on-year and nights and experiences up 8.4% on-year.
THURSDAY: Diageo's full-year results will be accompanied by a strategy day at which new Chief Executive Dave Lewis is expected to give his thoughts on the future direction for the spirits seller. Lewis, the former boss of Tesco, earned the nickname 'Drastic Dave' for his cost-cutting initiatives at the food retailer and reports have suggested this is one area he will be focusing on. In February, his first move was to halve the dividend after another drop in sales, and signal a shift of investment into more mass-market and ready-to-drink markets. Diageo, which owns brands such as Guinness stout and Smirnoff vodka, has struggled in the face of a competitive North American spirits market, the shift into low- to no-alcohol drinks and the perceived impact of weight loss drugs. Sales had flourished during the pandemic, but investors now question where the growth will come from. Analyst expect Lewis to lower prices, or offer cheaper alternatives, despite fears this will erode margins. Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy takes a positive view on the change and thinks Diageo has "left money on the table" by not catering to a broader range of consumers. "We see the business striking a better balance between premiumisation (drinking less but better), whilst also focusing on affordability," he says. Cost savings also will be a focus and lowered guidance can not be ruled out. For the full-year at Diageo, Jefferies analyst Mundy looks for organic sales to fall 2.7%, implying a 4.9% decline in the fourth quarter. Earnings before interest and tax for the full-year are seen 1% lower versus guidance of 'flat to up low single-digits' percentage. By region, Mundy models North America organic sales down 9.5%, Europe up 3.0%, Asia Pacific down 6.0%, Latin America & Caribbean up 7.0%, and Africa up 12%. Bank of America thinks a turnaround is achievable by Diageo but thinks progress will likely be gradual.
THURSDAY: Analyst expect third-quarter results from Siemens to show a continuation of the strong trends seen year-to-date. The German technology company is focused on industrial automation, smart infrastructure, rail transport, and health technology. JPMorgan expects to see immaterial direct and indirect disruption from the Middle East, given that cost inflation appears to have been offset by swift pricing actions; ongoing strength in Smart Infrastructure thanks to data centres and utility; and further evidence of a recovery in China. JPM models third-quarter Industrial orders ex-Healthineers of EUR18.3 billion, ahead of Bloomberg consensus of EUR16.5 billion, Industrial revenue ex-Healthineers of EUR14.4 billion, versus consensus of EUR14.2 billion, and Industrial profit ex-Healthineers of EUR2.4 billion, 2% ahead of consensus. In terms of guidance, UBS thinks Siemens could raise Digital Industries margin guidance of 17% to 19% and upgrade Smart Infrastructure 8% to 10% organic growth outlook.
FRIDAY: Analysts will be looking to see if the July nonfarm payrolls report follows the trend of the past two years, when softer data drove expectations for future interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In 2024, the US unemployment rate had been rising gradually before jumping from 4.1% to 4.3% in July. In 2025, payroll job growth was solid but the unemployment rate rebounded from a decline in June, and there were substantial downward revisions to job growth the previous two months. "The last two years, the July employment report has been a bit of a game changer for market perceptions of the health of the labour market," say analysts at Citigroup. In June, a softer-than-expected jobs report boosted hopes that US interest rates will be left on hold, but events in the Middle East, and sticky inflation, have since clouded this view. Citigroup expects payroll additions of 115,000 in July, above 85,000 Bloomberg consensus, rebounding from June's 57,000 gains. The broker sees a "significant" likelihood of "maybe substantial" downward revisions to June, similar to 2025, and also expects the unemployment rate to rise back to 4.3% from 4.2%. Barclays looks for 100,000 payroll gains and expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%.
Week Ahead by Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter
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